For the Dallas Mavericks, Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies, Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, and Atlanta Hawks, just 48 minutes will decide the rest of their season. Lose their next game, and they are eliminated entirely, and the Larry O’Brien trophy will remain out of reach for at least another season.
To be fair, at least three of these teams didn’t come into the season thinking they had any chance at winning a title, but that’s not true for Dallas — the Boston Celtics lifted the trophy on their home court with the Mavericks standing back in the visitors’ locker room. Of course, this Dallas squad is a lot different — Luka Dončić is in Los Angeles, most notably — but to fall to the 9-10 Play-In Tournament matchup must be jarring.
If the Mavericks want any chance of defending their Western Conference crown, their journey will start with a 10 p.m. ET matchup against the Sacramento Kings at Golden1 Center in California’s capital. The winner will move on to face the Grizzlies for a spot in the last 16.
Sacramento is a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-192 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 213. Meanwhile, Dallas is +160 on the Moneyline.
Anthony Davis Most Points + Rebounds + Assists (+110)
Quite simply, if Davis doesn’t finish as the game’s leader in P/R/A, the Mavericks will lose. Naji Marshall, Max Christie, Spencer Dinwiddie, old Klay Thompson, and PJ Washington simply don’t scare Sacramento; it’s all on the broad shoulders of the six-foot-10, 253-pound forward, and, to be fair, Davis has proven himself to be up to the task in the past. He did as much in his Dallas debut, recording 26 points, 16 rebounds, and seven assists in the first three quarters against the Houston Rockets on February 8 before suffering an adductor strain that forced him to sit for the next month and a half. He’s been inconsistent since his return, averaging just 19.3 points and 9.4 rebounds per game and shooting only 44.8% from the field in eight games, but the flashes — 23 points, 13 boards, 10 assists, and seven blocks in 30 minutes of a 124-102 win over the Toronto Raptors — have been special.
The Kings also aren’t that good. They were more or less average on both sides of the ball in the final 12 games of the regular season, after center Domantas Sabonis returned from a series of lower-body injuries, and average won’t cut it against a player as good as Davis. In the 41 minutes in which Sabonis guarded Davis in the pair’s four regular-season matchups, Davis scored 53 points, dished out 15 assists, and drew 10 shooting fouls, nailing 18 of the 20 ensuing free throws. He’s also had a few solid rebounding performances against Sabonis despite his dominance on the glass — on December 28, when he was still on the Lakers, Davis snagged 15 boards in a 132-122 Los Angeles victory.
Keon Ellis O1.5 Steals (-120)
The third-year pro from Alabama is starting to come into his own, posting career highs in every single statistical category this season. In particular, he has made a major impact since the deal that sent De’Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs, as he stepped into the regular starting lineup in March and has held it ever since. Across his last 13 games — of which he’s started every one — he’s averaged 9.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and, most impressively, 1.9 steals per game on absurdly efficient 51-44-80 shooting splits. In fact, he’s nabbed two or more steals in 15 of his 28 starts this season. His 3.0% steal percentage this season ranks fourth among qualified players and his defensive box plus-minus 11th.
Unsurprisingly, since the Mavericks replaced Kyrie Irving in the starting lineup with a combination of players who don’t handle the ball as well as Irving, they’ve started to turn the ball over more. Since Irving tore his ACL on March 3 — coincidentally, also against Sacramento — Dallas has allowed the seventh-most steals per game in the NBA after ranking as the 11th-best in that category before then. It’s hard to analyze very much about the Mavericks since then, given all the roster turnover, but even since Davis’ return 11 games ago — a span over which they’ve mostly trotted out similar lineups — they’ve given up the fifth-most.
Dereck Lively II U4.5 Rebounds (+110)
Lively deserves a lot of credit for returning to the court this season after suffering an ankle fracture in January that caused him to miss nearly three months. With Dallas’ hopes of making a deep playoff push largely shot, it wouldn’t have been surprising for Lively to shut it down. But the 21-year-old returned for the final five games of the season and showed some flashes of his old self, scoring 10 points and grabbing 11 boards in 18 minutes of the win over the Raptors. He’s operated in a mostly even time share with Daniel Gafford since his return.
But in the playoffs, rotations shorten and lesser-used players fall into low-usage roles on the bench. Lively isn’t a candidate to fall out of the rotation, especially if he were fully healthy, but his lack of shooting might hinder him against a big Kings lineup. Sabonis is more versatile than his compatriot Jonas Valančiūnas, and the two centers never share the floor, but both are generally most useful on both sides of the ball if they operate closer to the paint. Davis doesn’t like playing center, but in a stark contrast to their jumbo starting lineup, the Mavericks might be best off countering with Dinwiddie at the point, Davis at the 5 and both Lively and Gafford on the bench. Davis has spent 42% of his minutes with Dallas in the middle, per Basketball Reference’s Player Position Estimate.
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