The 82-game grind of the NBA regular season and the opening night of play-in tournament action are in the books. But two more games will take place tonight as we pick at the appetizers of the NBA playoff main event.
An Eastern Conference battle will start the night as the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls face off. The winner of this game will play the Atlanta Hawks for the right to face the Cavaliers in the playoffs on Friday, while the loser will see their season come to an end. The odds have moved to an essential pick ’em on DraftKings Sportsbook, with Miami holding -105 odds to win and Chicago holding -115 odds.
The action will then travel to the West Coast, where the Sacramento Kings will host the Dallas Mavericks. It has been a hectic season for Mavericks’ fans with Nico Harrison recently meeting with hand-selected reporters with no cameras or recording devices allowed to further explain the Luka Doncic trade yesterday. Regardless, the action will continue on the court with the Mavericks holding +160 odds of getting the outright win tonight while the Kings are favored by 4.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The winner of this matchup will play the Memphis Grizzlies for a chance to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoffs.
With two games of play-in action on the table, here are my four favorite prop bets of the night.
Tyler Herro Over 24.5 Points (-120)
Overshadowed by the Jimmy Butler trade saga and an underwhelming season by the Miami Heat, Tyler Herro has had a career year. The 25-year-old earned his first All-Star appearance, averaging 23.9 points, 5.5 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game this season. Herro also took a career-high 8.7 three-point attempts and connected at a 37.5% rate while shooting a career-best 56.5% inside the arc.
He will now face off with a Bulls defense that has had its struggles. Chicago ranks 28th in opponent points allowed, 27th in opponent three-point attempts and it has given up the most points in the paint in the league. Herro has not had his greatest success against the Bulls in the three games he has played this season, but he did score 30 points in a matchup. Overall, he recorded over 24.5 points in 34 games this season.
Miami is lacking in its number of offensive creators, and Chicago struggles defensively. Expect a significant workload on Herro’s plate and for the Heat guard to deliver. Herro closed the season recording over 24.5 points in six of his last eight games. Defense will continue to be the biggest concern with this Bulls team, so look for Herro to be the biggest guy to expose this. Count on him having plenty of shot opportunities and recording over 24.5 points in this play-in matchup. Look for him to do everything possible to keep the Heat alive as he begins to settle into being the face of the Miami franchise in a way that was not expected to be the case at the start of the season.
Josh Giddey to Record a Triple-Double (+160)
Regardless of how this play-in tournament or playoffs end, the level of play from Josh Giddey should be looked at as a huge positive this season for the Bulls. Chicago traded for the former Thunder guard before the season and, despite some strong critiques from the general public, Giddey revealed some layers to his game he was unable to previously show. The Australian guard averaged 14.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game on the season overall.
He took his game to new heights down the stretch. Since the All-Star break, Giddey has averaged 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game. He has tallied seven triple-doubles on the season, with five of these coming after the All-Star break and one occurring against the Heat. These teams faced off on April 9th, where Giddey finished with 28 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists. Across his three matchups with the Heat in the regular season, he has averaged 26.0 points, 10.3 rebounds and 10.0 assists. While the lights will be a little brighter for this game, expect Giddey to have the same success as he continues carrying full responsibility for running the offense and doing whatever the team needs.
Looking at his prop lines, Giddey’s over/unders are set at 18.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists. Coby White has stepped up as well, but Giddey has the freedom and responsibility for impacting the game in all areas for the Bulls. Look for him to carry this effort into the play-in tournament and take a chance on the +160 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for him to replicate his previous regular-season output against this Heat team.
Anthony Davis Over 41.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-120)
It has been a nightmare transition to Dallas for Anthony Davis through no fault of his own. As the fan base continues to express their frustrations over the loss of Luka Doncic and the organization continues to dig a deeper hole in its management of the situation, Davis will suit up and try to lead this team to wins. The 10-time All-Star will be the clear-cut best player on the floor in this matchup with the Kings, and expect this to be on full display tonight.
Davis has played just nine games for the Mavericks thus far. He is averaging 20.0 points, 10.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists across his 29.6 minutes per game in this brief sample size. The five-time All-Defensive team member has recorded over 41.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in four of these games, including closing the regular season with a 23-point, 13-rebound and 10-assist triple-double.
Sacramento leaves plenty to be desired defensively. Across the regular season, it ranked 19th in opponent points allowed, 22nd in opponent field-goal percentage and 16th in total rebounding. Expect Davis to get the better of the matchup with Domantas Sabonis and set the tone for this Mavericks team with a spirited effort tonight. There is no true cure for the frustrations of the fan base, but expect Davis to do his best by producing over 41.5 combined points, rebounds and assists tonight against a vulnerable Kings defense tonight.
Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 Assists (+114)
On the other side of the matchup with Davis will be Domantas Sabonis. The three-time All-Star is coming off another solid season in which he averaged 19.1 points, an NBA-best 13.9 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game. While he will not be confused for Nikola Jokic, Sabonis is one of the best playmaking big men in the league, and expect this to be an area Sacramento uses to attack tonight.
It is tough to read too much into the numbers because of all the injuries it has dealt with, but Dallas ranks 20th in opponent points allowed and 20th in opponent assists this season. In the two regular-season matchups between these two teams, Sabonis finished with assist outputs of seven and eight. While Sabonis often has success in the post with his strength, this will not be the case against the likes of Davis, Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford. Look for him to still make his impact felt by producing as a playmaker.
When they are at their best, the Kings’ offense functions with plenty of off-ball motion from players like Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, with Sabonis serving as the offensive hub. Expect him to get these opportunities tonight and deliver as a passer with Dallas’ interior defense in mind. Take a chance on the +114 odds for Sabonis to record over 6.5 assists as he has done 30 times this season and in both matchups with the Mavericks already.
