We’re blowing right by the afternoon slate of baseball to get to tonight’s primetime-and-beyond action on the diamond. Plenty of marquee games: Reds vs. Mariners, Rays vs. Red Sox, Diamondbacks vs. Marlins, Dodgers, vs. Rockies. Golly. Below are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+120) vs. Miami Marlins
We may all rejoice that Max Meyer might finally be coming into his own as a starter for the Marlins. I’ve always been high on his prospect profile, loved the way he deployed the sword in the minors, etc. His cleanest outing was his last—only two hits and two walks over 6.1 IP.
Having said that, I think he’s still too much of a if-the-stuff-is-working starter—which is fine, he’s young—and that’s not the sort of pitcher I’m interested in sending out against this Diamondbacks lineup right now. Corbin Carroll’s right where we were hoping he’d be after a down 2024, and maybe a little bit more spectacularly so. Last night’s grand slam almost had me saying, “Okay, Corbin—we get it. Slow down.” But he won’t.
And neither will the rest of this Diamondbacks lineup. Pavin Smith quietly has an OPS over 1.000 and is hitting right-handers with advanced metrics right around or all well above the 75th percentile in the MLB. He is, however, striking out at a disgusting 34.8% clip, which plays right into Meyers’ hands. This is a matchup to watch. More on that a little later.
And, ultimately, we’re not just talking about the Diamondbacks’ offense. Brandon Pfaadt (who’s 6+ strikeouts market on DraftKings Sportsbook has an odds of -125 right now, by the way), should lash his way through this pesky Marlins lineup. Four batters (Xavier Edwards, Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, and Otto Lopez) have OPSes over .720, but unless they can take him deep, I like Pfaadt to keep the team total for the Marlins low. His 2.1% walk rate and 1.06 WHIP don’t exactly favor the Marlins’ top-ten OBP.
It’s not great juice for the Dbacks to win by two, so you could go conservative and take the Moneyline play. But I’ll bet on Pfaadt and Corbin Carroll to, for the second night in a row, make his 2024 fantasy managers roll their eyes while his 2025 managers check jersey prices.
Pavin Smith 2+ total bases (+135) vs. Miami Marlins
Won’t spend too much time on this, as I covered the Dbacks above. But Pavin Smith on the strong-/left-handed-side of an outfield platoon has been paying quiet dividends for the Diamondbacks in the early weeks here. Smith’s metrics are a little gobsmacking: 100th-percentile in launch-angle sweet spot %age, 95th-percentile barrel rate, 83rd-percentile exit velocity, and 80th-percentile in walk rate. All to say: the approach is sterling.
The reason this bet carries much risk at all is because of Smith’s aforementioned 34.8% strikeout rate, which ranks bottom-ten in the league. Meyer could exploit that.
I’ve decided to really hype up the Pavin vs. Max matchup tonight, simply because both these guys had some mystique headed into the season, and they’re both giving us all reason to believe the intrigue’s been validated. I bet Pavin wins this one tonight. Who you got?
Tyler Soderstrom u0.5 hits (+125) at Chicago White Sox
Dangerous game, betting against the MLB home run leader who just popped two three-runners last night in Chicago’s south side. But it might be a decent spot to fade Soderstrom, who’s yet to face White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon. Cannon’s got an xBAA of .219, which is right around the 70th percentile in terms of qualifying MLB starters.
Other than Soderstrom’s stretch at Coors and at home against San Diego, he’s actually hung quite a few 0-fors this year. The market doesn’t want you to think so. But go check his game log.
He’s as locked in as anybody, so it’s risky thinking his barrel won’t connect with the ball in such a way that it lands safely. But, hey, maybe the wind forecasted in Chicago tonight will work in our favor.
