The Kings are hosting the Mavericks for a win-or-go home Play-In Tournament matchup Wednesday. The winner of this game will face the Grizzlies in Memphis on Friday and the winner of that contest will face the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. The loser of tonight’s Kings vs. Mavericks matchup will be eliminated from the playoffs and their season will be over.
Let’s explore how the public is backing this contest.
Betting Splits
After sweeping the Mavericks 3-0 in the regular season, the Kings are unsurprisingly being heavily backed to win this Play-In matchup. On the moneyline, 69% of the handle and 77% of the bets are on the Kings. As for the spread, 81% of the handle and 66% of the bets are on Sacramento -4.5. In the Kings’ three regular season wins over the Mavericks, Sacramento won by an average of 11.7 PPG. The problem is that Kings have been terrible at covering at home this season, with a 14-23-3 ATS record, which is the second-worst in the NBA, only trailing the dreadful 76ers. So, while 4.5 points might not seem like a large number for Sacramento to clear, attacking them on the moneyline is a much safer choice if you believe the Kings will win this game.
The total for this game is at a low 214 points and while 78% of the bets are on the over, only 24% of the handle is on this selection. 76% of the handle is on under 214 points, meaning the sharpest and largest bettors are backing the under. While neither the Kings or Mavericks are high potent offenses, neither of these clubs are strong defensively, either. Plus, Sacramento ranks third-to-last in pace since the All-Star break. In this situation, tailing the sharp money for under 214 points is wise.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Klay Thompson 1st Point Scorer (+850)
- Keegan Murray Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-130)
- P.J. Washington Over 14.5 Points (-130)
- Keegan Murray Over 5.5 Rebounds (-115)
- Anthony Davis 6+ Assists (+230)
Thompson to be the first point scorer is the most bet player prop for this Play-In matchup and has appeal when it comes to bets that present long odds. Thompson has been the first scorer in nine games this season, meaning he has accomplished this goal in 12.5% of his starts. Thompson has seen a 23.1% usage rate in the first quarter this season and the savvy veteran opening this contest with a bucket is totally possible.
Murray being a popular bet for over 17.5 PR is a result of Malik Monk (calf) being out for the Kings, as most believe Murray will take on a larger role sans Monk. Murray has played in 16 games without Monk this season and Murray is averaging 19.1 PR per game in those tilts. Given these results, Murray for over 17.5 PR feels strong, but due note that the forward was dealing with a back injury to close the regular season, that costed Murray three of the Kings’ final five games.
Up next is Washington for over 14.5 points, which isn’t a great wager at these -130 odds. Despite all of the Mavericks’ final five games of the regular season being meaningful, Washington didn’t score over 14.5 points once. The veteran was a strong contributor for Dallas when Anthony Davis was sidelined, but with the star big man now healthy, Washington is a bad bet for over 14.5 points, especially against this Kings team that ranks third-to-last in pace since the All-Star break. In the seven starts he has made with Davis this season, Washington is averaging 13.4 PPG.
The fourth-most popular player prop is once again Murray, this time as an individual stat for over 5.5 rebounds. The forward is averaging 6.7 rebounds per game with Monk inactive this season, but attacking Murray for over 17.5 PR makes more sense, as with two stats included, there are more paths for you to win, which is accounted for in that over’s -130 price.
Lastly, Davis for 6+ assists is popular due to receny bias, with the big man notching 10 and six assists in his last two starts. However, Davis is only averaging 4.4 assists per game since joining the Mavericks and going against this slow paced Kings team isn’t ideal for Davis to shine as a playmaker. While the +230 price on this prop is appealing, this bet cashing is unlikely and not worth chasing.
