The Bulls are hosting the Heat for a win-or-go home Play-In Tournament matchup Wednesday. While the loser of this game will be eliminated from postseason contention, the winner will face the Hawks in Atlanta on Friday and the winner of that game will face the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs.
Let’s explore how the public is backing this contest.
Betting Splits
The public is heavily backing the hosting Bulls to defeat the Heat on Wednesday. On the moneyline, 76% of the handle and 61% of the bets are on Chicago and for the spread, 84% of the handle and 72% of the bets are on the Bulls -1. This makes a ton of sense, as Chicago is the home team and more importantly, they swept the Heat in the regular season 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 7.3 PPG. Given that all the money and bets are on the Bulls -1, this line is likely to move to -1.5 or maybe even -2 before tipoff, so if you like Chicago tonight, betting on them fast is a smart move.
As for the total, this is another one sided affair with 69% of the handle and 73% of the bets for over 219 points. Given that the Bulls and Heat’s three regular season matchups generated 236.7 PPG and all three of these games went over 219 points, the public heavily backing the over is very obvious. With Josh Giddey running the show, the Bulls lead the NBA in pace since the All-Star break and only one of Chicago’s final 10 games of the regular season fell under 219 points. Again, if interested in over 219 points tonight, attacking this over fast is smart, as this line is likely to move up with most of the money and wagers being on the over.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Matas Buzelis 1st Point Scorer (+1100)
- Josh Giddey Yes for a Triple-Double (+240)
- Coby White Under 22.5 Points (-105)
- Bam Adebayo 20+ Points (-115)
- Nikola Vucevic Under 10.5 Rebounds (-160)
The most bet player prop for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook is Buzelis to be the first point scorer of this contest. This is truly shocking and very puzzling in all honesty. Buzelis has only once this season been the first scorer in a game and he is only averaging 3.2 first quarter points this season. While these +1100 odds are mouthwatering, this is a foolish longshot bet that has little merit.
Conversely, Giddey for a triple-double at +240 is very logical. The guard has been one of the best players in the NBA recently and is nearly averaging a triple-double since the All-Star break. Furthermore, Giddey is coming off a triple-double against the same Heat club he will face tonight, which is his second against Miami in three meetings this season and his fifth triple-double in his last 12 starts.
With White ending the regular season with 18 points or lower in each of his final three games, the guard for under 22.5 points being popular isn’t a surprise. Plus, White has stayed under 22.5 points in all three of his matchups with the Heat this season. That being said, the guard is going to see huge minutes with the Bulls’ season on the line Wednesday and since the All-Star break, White is averaging 24.5 PPG with a team-high 26.5% usage rate. So, there is certainly logic in fading the public and attacking White for over 22.5 points tonight.
Adebayo for 20+ points is another common player prop for Wednesday that has the stats to back up its popularity. The center is averaging 20.6 PPG since the All-Star break and he has scored 21+ points in five of his last six starts. Additionally, Adebayo has recorded at least 22 points in two of his three meetings with the Bulls this season. Of the these top-five most popular player props for this Play-In Matchup, Adebayo for 20+ points is the safest option.
Lastly, Vucevic for under 10.5 rebounds is gaining a ton of traction on DraftKings Sportsbook, but at these -160 odds, this under isn’t a wise wager. Vucevic enters this Play-In matchup playing his best basketball of the season and he has notched at least 11 rebounds in four of his last five starts. Included in this is a 11-rebound outing vs. the Heat and that lone contest during this stretch that Vucevic fell shot of 10.5 rebounds was the meaningless regular season finale in which Vucevic only logged 16 minutes. The veteran should see close to 40 minutes tonight with everything at stake and with this huge volume, backing Vucevic for over 10.5 rebounds is the smarter choice with this over carrying +124 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
