This week the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links, a tight Pete Dye-designed venue that is located on Hilton Head Island in South Carolina. The event is a smaller field featuring about 70 golfers with all the players getting to play four rounds (no-cut event). That means there is no cut sweat this week for those playing event-long Pick6 lineups.
I wrote a little about the course in this week’s PGA Cheat Sheet for the RBC Heritage on DKNetwork.
“The average driving distance of the field at Harbour Town is 10-15 yards less than the average stop on the PGA TOUR, however, it is worth noting that strokes gained off the tee is still important this week. Two of the past three winners have gained over 4.0 strokes OTT as being accurate and longer here can really set you up well on approach (and take the difficulty out of parts of this course). Even Matthew Fitzpatrick, the 2023 winner, gained 1.6 strokes on approach and he’s generally not the most accurate off-the-tee player.
The fact the course is set alongside the water also means wind plays a factor. Cooler and more gusty conditions have kept the scoring higher in two of the past three seasons, and three of the past seven winners have now failed to breach the 13-under mark for the week. The weather and small greens also tend to make strokes gained around the greens stats somewhat more important. Top finishers at Harbour Town have gained more strokes against the field in around-the-green stats than off-the-tee during the lifetime of this event and both Fitzpatrick and Spieth (the 2023 and 2022 winners) gained over 3.5 strokes ATG in the year of their wins.”
Harbour Town is much shorter than Augusta at just 7,100 yards, but as a par 71 it does contain several tight par 4s, and the par 3s are all very difficult. Weather can play a big factor here as well, although for 2025, the wind isn’t expected to be too blustery. Either way, it’s an event where players need to be accurate and patient off the tee or risk getting closed out on approach and scrambling for par.
Long story short, you have to be a great ball-striker to get birdie chances at Harbour Town, and experience playing around this venue has tended to be a huge help.
As a result, I’ll be targeting players with great OTT/Approach stats coming in (recent form) but also weighing course experience a lot this week, when building out any Pick6 lineups.
DraftKings Pick6 has full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals, specifically finishing positions (“Better Than” or “Worse Than”).
Daniel Berger Better Than 26.5 Finishing Position
Berger has been consistent all season and seems like a player ready to take the next leap forward. He gained 3.6 strokes on approach at Augusta (a much longer and less suitable track for him) and has now gained over one stroke on approach in three straight starts. One thing I love about Berger for this week’s setup (and why he often does so well on these classic, tight courses) is his consistency off the tee. He’s gained over a stroke OTT in four of his last five starts and remains one of the most accurate OTT players in the game. Add in a hot putter that has gained him strokes in six straight starts, and it’s hard not to be bullish on him this week from a recent form perspective alone.
Berger has also played Hilton Head a ton and finished T3 here back in 2020. It’s been a year or two since he’s tee’d it up at this venue but having such a good lead-in makes him an attractive buy target right now. I’d look for him to compete and have no problem building a Pick6 card around him finishing inside the top 25 this week
Sungjae Im Better Than 24.5 Finishing Position
Just like Berger, I love these more classic setups for Sungjae Im. The South Korean’s two career PGA wins came on similar styled venues in PGA National and TPC Summerlin–tighter accuracy-driven venues where water and wind comes into play. While he hasn’t been as consistent with his ball-striking this season as Berger he’s just as accurate off the tee and comes in having gained strokes OTT in 14 straight events now.
Im’s iron play needs to take a step up if he’s going to compete for the title this week, but the rest of his game looks in top form. He gained 5.8 strokes around the greens at Augusta and did improve his approach stats at the year’s first major, which is a good sign coming into this week. Overall, he’s finished T21 or better at Hilton Head in each of the past four seasons, so backing him to be T24 or better this week has also been the correct side to be on, historically, for him at this event. I don’t have a problem doubling down on him, beside Berger, as the two have the recent form and course history I’m looking to side with this week.
JJ Spaun Worse Than 28.5 Finishing Position
Spaun has had a nice start to the season, which climaxed with a second place playoff loss at the PLAYERS. The veteran has had some big moments in 2025, but it does look like some regression is now starting to take place in his results. He missed the cut at Houston, another event where I recommended fading him, and then finished T50 at the Masters, losing 2.5 strokes on approach and 5.1 strokes around the greens.
This week is a signature event, so Spaun is going to get in four rounds, regardless, but his game doesn’t look like it’s in shape to take on the world’s best right now. The fact is, even at 28.5, his finishing total requires him to finish inside the top 40% of this field, something he hasn’t come close to managing over his last two starts. There will probably be a time to get back on Spaun, but this week may not be it.
On top of his poor recent form, he’s also missed the cut at the RBC Heritage in 2020, 2022 and 2023—so while the course may look suitable for his skillset, he’s never really jived with it on the results sheet. I don’t mind fading the American for one more week as he looks like he hasn’t quite fully reset after his big PLAYERS performance.
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