The long grind of the NBA regular season is in the books and the playoffs are about to hit full gear. The final seeds must still be decided with the first two play-in tournament games now done. DeMar DeRozan enters with some of the most play-in experience of all time and will be looking to help keep the Sacramento Kings’ season alive as they take on the Dallas Mavericks.
Neither of these teams hold the exact outlook they hoped for, with both organizations trading their All-Star centerpieces during the middle of the season. Luka Doncic nor De’Aaron Fox will be walking back into their respective locker rooms anytime soon, and the teams must prepare for battle with the rosters they have. The winner of tonight’s game will play the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday for the right to face the Thunder in the playoffs, while the loser will shift their focus to the offseason.
The Kings enter as 4.5-point favorites and -192 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook for the matchup. The Mavericks hold +160 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 213.
With the stage set, here are my favorite DeMar DeRozan prop bets ahead of this Western Conference Play-In matchup.
Best DeMar DeRozan Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
DeRozan’s props are listed at over/under 24.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.5 made three-pointers and 33.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
DeMar DeRozan Over 5.5 Assists (-105)
In his 15th NBA season, DeMar DeRozan is still proving he can play at a high level. The six-time All-Star has averaged 22.2 points, 4.4 assists and 3.9 rebounds on the season, keeping pretty consistent with his career averages at age 35.
Playmaking is one area where he has regressed, with his 4.4 assists marking his lowest output since the 2016-17 season. His role in the offense has changed notably following the midseason trade, with his assist numbers showing this. DeRozan averaged 3.7 assists per game before the All-Star break and 5.7 per game since. He enters this game having recorded over 5.5 assists in seven of his past 12 games, including having two matchups with 10 assists.
Malik Monk remains out injured, which has forced DeRozan into even more of an on-ball role. In the 14 games without Monk, DeRozan is averaging 5.6 assists per game and 5.8 assists across the final 25 games of the season.
This is DeRozan’s third year in the Play-in Tournament and the fifth matchup he has played in. With some notable roster turnover on each of these teams throughout the season, expect experience to be a factor and for DeRozan to step up. With Fox traded and Monk injured, count on the veteran to continue taking on more of a playmaking-oriented role and record over 5.5 assists tonight.
DeMar DeRozan Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+135)
The three-point shot will never be the first thing that comes to mind when thinking of DeMar DeRozan. However, the Kings guard had the second-most three-point attempts per game of his career this season and connected at a 32.8% rate. DeRozan averaged 1.1 made three-pointers per game and made over 1.5 perimeter shots in 24 games this season. This includes shooting 4-for-6 from beyond the three-point arc in a previous matchup against the Mavericks this season.
It is difficult to fully gauge the outlook for the Mavericks’ defense. The organization has been extremely vocal about its belief that defense wins championships. However, it ranks 20th in opponent points allowed and grades worse defensively this season compared to last year by just about every metric. In fairness, Anthony Davis has played just nine games thus far for the Mavericks and the outlook will surely change with a larger sample size.
Dallas has flashed to be a physically imposing defense that controls the interior for stretches with Davis on the floor. Expect this to show up tonight with the playoff-like atmosphere and for points to be difficult to come by on the interior.
Sacramento is not a high-volume three-point shooting team, ranking 24th in attempts on the season. DeRozan is directly correlated to this with his preference to operate in the midrange, but expect it to be necessary to expand to the perimeter tonight. DeRozan is a capable three-point shooter and has connected on over 1.5 made three-pointers in seven of the final 17 games to close the season.
With Dallas’ interior defense in mind, look for him to connect on over 1.5 three-pointers and take a swing on the +135 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
