Perhaps the most interesting first-round series in the bracket, this Nuggets-Clippers series promises to be a barn burner.
It’s the only first-round matchup on the board between two 50-win squads. Somehow, Los Angeles has been involved in three of the last four such matchups. Only in the Western Conference do things like this happen. Despite having identical records, these teams have been trending in opposite directions for the past month.
On one hand, the Los Angeles Clippers dominated March and April. They’re 18-5 over those months and come into the playoffs riding an 8-game winning streak. Their matchup last Sunday against the Golden State Warriors had the feel of a playoff game, and Los Angeles handled it extremely well.
On the other hand, Denver comes into this postseason in turmoil. Over the same period where Los Angeles went off, Denver stumbled to an 11-11 record and fired coach Michael Malone along the way. It took a three-game winning streak just to hold on to home-court advantage in the first round. Despite the play of Nikola Jokic, the best player in the world (and perhaps the greatest offensive player of all time), they’re not the championship team of two years ago.
Struggles aside, it’s going to be an absolute slugfest. The Clippers are clicking with Kawhi Leonard back in the fold, and Denver possesses the biggest playoff cheat code in the league. And the winner, in all likelihood, will face off with the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder. Welcome to the West.
For the series, the two teams are dead even at -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Denver is a 2.5-point favorite for Game 1 at home on Saturday. Let’s dig into the important matchups here and predict who will advance.
Big on Big
The marquee matchup in this one comes down low. It’s going to be a real Balkan Battle between Nikola Jokic and Ivica Zubac. The three-time MVP will have his hands full with Zubac, who should be a candidate for an All-Defense spot.
Jokic, who led the league in post-ups per 100 possessions at 11, only posted up 10 times in 3 matchups against the Clippers. The prospect of spending endless possessions going to task on the 7-foot 240-pounder doesn’t appeal to the Joker, and who can blame him? I’d expect that number to rise drastically in this series. He’s their best hope of staying afloat offensively.
On the other end, Zu will be the primary play finisher off of James Harden’s pick-and-rolls. If Denver’s perimeter defenders can’t contain the former MVP, Jokic will be between a rock and a hard place trying to cover his drives and Zubac down low. It could be a high-scoring series for the big man if the Nuggets sell out to stop Harden from scoring.
Backcourt Showdown
All eyes will be on Jamal Murray in this series. His availability and level of play are perhaps the biggest swing factor in the whole series.
Murray missed five straight games before playing in the last two of the regular season. It’s nice that he was able to shake some rust off before the playoffs, but there was indeed a lot of rust. Now the 28-year-old is thrown into the fire against one of the best defensive teams in the sport. Jamal figures to see a lot of Kawhi Leonard and Kris Dunn in this one, as Denver lacks other perimeter creators.
One of the biggest playoff risers in recent memory, a lot rides on Murray in this series. If he can consistently deliver the way he did against the Lakers last year, they stand a good chance. If he’s under 20 points like he was in 5 of 7 games against the Wolves last year, they’re in trouble.
There is also a lot of pressure on James Harden. His reputation as a ringless playoff dropper is close to being set in stone. The 35-year-old point guard has experienced a renaissance in LA after some tough years in Brooklyn and Philadelphia. These playoffs might be his best hope to shake his playoff demons. It will be a tough road, assuredly, but even a deep run through the West would go a long way towards changing his narrative. And any Cippers run, let alone a series win, would be driven by Harden’s offense.
Crisis of Depth
When you go up and down these teams, every matchup favors the Clippers after you get past Jokic.
I’d argue LA boasts the second, third, and fourth best players in this series in Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, and Ivica Zubac. Jamal and Aaron Gordon slide in at five and six for me. Christian Braun and Michael Porter Jr. have good cases for top ten players in the series, as do Norman Powell and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Beyond that?
I don’t believe in Russell Westbrook as a playoff guy, and interim coach David Adelman doesn’t trust him the way Michael Malone did. Peyton Watson is far too unreliable. DeAndre Jordan, Jalen Pickett, and Julian Strawther’s minutes don’t inspire much. Meanwhile, the Clippers have dependable vets who know their roles. Guys like Kris Dunn, Nicolas Batum, and Derrick Jones Jr. are invaluable come playoff time. Even Ben Simmons has figured out a role in LA.
When it comes time for Nikola Jokic and other Nuggets starters to take a breather, they’re in serious trouble. It will take a lot of staggering of the starters and big lifts from Jamal Murray and Co. to keep bench lineups treading water, let alone above it. Those non-Jokic minutes may tilt a game or two in this series.
Prediction
This projects as a serious dogfight. Both teams are at -110 to win the series; no other series has a favorite at less than -195 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ultimately, I think the depth of stars and role players on this Clippers team wins the day. They have more ways to beat you offensively, they have a great depth of defenders, and on top of that they have the better coach in Ty Lue. Offensive versatility, quality depth, and elite coaching is a great formula for playoff basketball.
I like the value of the Clippers to win in six games. LA has won 13 of its last 14 home games, with the only defeat coming against the Thunder. I’d expect them to go 3 for 3 defending home turf, and unless Denver can go band for band on home wins, I have the Clippers advancing for a date with Oklahoma City.
