The NBA Play-In Tournament continues tonight with a do-or-die battle in Chicago. The tenth-seeded Heat (37-45) will visit the ninth-seeded Bulls (39-43). A date with the Hawks on Friday awaits the winner, while one team’s season will come to a close. Miami’s success may hinge on the play of Tyler Herro. The sixth-year pro enjoyed a breakout 2024-25 campaign, earning his first career All-Star Game selection.
The Heat enter tonight’s contest as two-point underdogs, with the over/under set at 220 points. Here’s the best Tyler Herro prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook before Wednesday’s game tips off.
Tyler Herro U 2.5 three-pointers made (+114)
As previously mentioned, it’s been a career year for Herro. The guard has averaged 23.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game this season. Most important for the Heat, he’s stepped up as leading scorer following Jimmy Butler’s midseason trade to Golden State. Per usual, the sharpshooter has been lethal from deep, knocking down 37.5% of his three-point attempts.
Miami could be in for a shootout tonight against a Bulls team that plays at the NBA’s second-fastest pace (103.61). Therefore, it’s no surprise opponents are putting up 121.0 points per game vs. Chicago, the second-highest mark in basketball. Keeping that in mind, why on Earth should bettors even consider fading Herro?
If there’s one thing the Bulls do well, it’s defending the perimeter. The team has held opponents to 34.4% shooting from beyond the arc, the NBA’s second-lowest rate. That number has dropped to 28.8% over Chicago’s last three games, which includes an April 9th matchup with Miami.
Over three meetings with the Bulls this season, Herro has shot just 7-for-25 (28.0%) from long distance. Chicago’s rapid pace ensures volume, but it’s difficult to back anyone connecting on such a low rate. At plus money, consider fading Miami’s leading scorer on Wednesday.
