The Warriors have found themselves in this spot more than they would’ve liked over recent years, and it hasn’t gone well for them. This will be Golden State’s fourth game participating in the Play-In Tournament, going 0-3 in previous attempts. The Dubs lost to the Lakers and then these Grizzlies in 2021 and the Kings just last season, with a championship sandwiched between in 2022. Memphis stunned Golden State at home as a big underdog four years ago, but the Warriors got their revenge in the postseason during their 2022 championship run.
Golden State was on shaky ground in February, prior to acquiring Jimmy Butler, but the move clearly bolstered this roster. The Warriors are 23-7 with Butler in the lineup this season, and had they made the move a week earlier, likely avoid the Play-In. Instead, they lost in overtime to the Clippers on Sunday, which held the Dubs out of the top six teams in the Western Conference.
On the flip side, Memphis has been going in the opposite direction down the home stretch of the regular season. The Grizzlies made a head scratching move with the firing of Taylor Jenkins, and it failed to spark any kind of jolt from the team. The Grizz have now lost 14 consecutive games to teams that made the playoffs, with the last victory coming over the Bucks on February 2. During that stretch, there was also a nine-point loss at home to these Warriors earlier this month.
These are two teams that wound up in the same spot to fight for playoff position, but they’ve taken far different paths. I’ll take the experience and momentum of the Warriors at home, and back them a couple of different ways — including by pairing them with the Magic in a moneyline parlay.
The Play: Warriors Halftime/Fulltime (-140) 1-unit
The Play: Warriors/Magic ML Parlay (-103) 1-unit
While I like the Warriors a lot in the game, there is one glaring matchup issue, which puts me on a player prop on the Memphis side. Golden State does lack size, and since the coaching change, the Grizzlies have been relying much more on Zach Edey. The 7’4″ rookie has seen a significant boost in playing time, and has pulled down 11 or more rebounds in six of his last eight games. That stretch includes a matchup against the Warriors, where Edey pulled down 16 boards in 32 minutes. Edey creates a mismatch that the Warriors will struggle with, so if he stays out of foul trouble, Edey should produce on the glass.
The Play: Zach Edey 11+ Rebounds (-125) 1-unit
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