The Warriors are hosting the Grizzlies on Tuesday for an NBA Play-In Tournament matchup. The winner of this game will be the No.7 seed in the Western Conference and face the Rockets in the first round, while the loser will host a win-or-go home Play-In Tournament matchup Friday against the winner of Wednesday’s Play-In matchup between the Mavericks and the Kings.
Let’s explore how the public is backing this contest.
Betting Splits
Unsurprisingly, the public is heavily backing the Warriors for a win tonight, with 77% of the handle and 82% of the bets on the Moneyline for Golden State. This makes sense, as the Warriors were 3-1 against the Grizzlies this season and Golden State has been one of the best teams in the NBA since the All-Star break, ranking third in net rating, while Memphis ranks 17th. That being said, the public isn’t overly thrilled about the Warriors being favored by seven points tonight, as only 60% of the handle and 48% of the bets are for the Warriors -7. This is a large line, but each of Golden State’s last two wins over the Grizzlies have been by at least eight points and the Warriors are 23-16-2 ATS this season, which is the fourth-best record in the league.
As for the total, 38% of the handle and 62% of the bets are on the over and 62% of the handle and 38% of the bets are on the under. The four matchups between the Warriors and Grizzlies this season generated 242.8 PPG, but the biggest spenders are far more on the under, which has merit given that this Play-In matchup is a playoff game.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Zach Edey Over 10.5 Rebounds (-140)
- Jimmy Butler Over 22.5 Points (-120)
- Draymond Green Under 6.5 Assists (-125)
- Stephen Curry Under 5.5 Made Three Pointers (-166)
- Stephen Curry 25+ Points (-260)
Bettors are heavily attacking Edey for over 10.5 rebounds tonight, which is a product of the rookie averaging 15.7 rebounds per game in his last six, including a 16-rebound showing vs. the Warriors. With Golden State giving up the third-most rebounds to centers this season, 10.5 rebounds is simply too low of a line for Edey and this over being the most popular prop for this game makes a ton of sense.
Another bet that is rightfully very popular is Butler for over 22.5 points. The veteran scored at least 24 points in each of his final three games of the season, and Butler posted 27 points when he faced the Grizzlies on April 1st. Add in the narrative of Butler being a player who always rises to the occasion in big moments, and this scoring line might continue to move up before game-time. On Monday, Butler’s scoring line was at 21.5 points.
While Green posted 12 assists when he faced the Grizzlies on April 1st, most bettors aren’t expecting this type of outing from him again, with Green for under 6.5 assists being the third-most popular player prop for Tuesday on DraftKings Sportsbook. While that 12-assist showing vs. Memphis was impressive, Green has only exceeded 6.5 assists twice in his last 10 starts. He is only averaging 5.6 assists per game this season.
The fourth and fifth most bet player props of the night belong to Curry. First off, most bettors are backing Curry for under 5.5 made three pointers. Yes, 5.5 is a high line, but at an unappealing -166 price, taking this under doesn’t feel wise. Curry just torched Memphis for 12 made three pointers on April 1st, and he hit seven three pointers in the Warriors’ pivotal regular season finale matchup with the Clippers on Sunday. Also, since the All-Star break, the Grizzlies have slipped to 18th in defensive rating, and they are allowing their opponents to make three pointers at the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Conversely, many bettors are eating the heavy -260 odds and backing Curry for 25+ points, which does feel like a lock in this crucial matchup. The sharpshooter erupted for 52 points when he just faced Memphis on April 1st and Curry is averaging 26.7 PPG since the All-Star break with a 30.6% usage rate.
