The NBA’s Play-In Tournament begins Tuesday with the Magic hosting the Hawks. The winner of this game will be the No.7 seed in the Eastern Conference and face the Celtics in the first round. As for the loser, that team will be hosting the winner of Wednesday’s matchup between the Bulls and Heat on Friday. That will be a win-or-go home matchup that decides who will be the No.8 seed and faces the Cavaliers in the first round. Below, I break down Tuesday’s tilt between the Magic and Hawks, and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Magic vs. Hawks preview, prediction
The Magic closed the regular season in strong form, winning seven of their last 10 games. While Paolo Banchero initially struggled after he returned from a 34-game absence due to an oblique injury in January, the Duke product is back to playing at an All-Star level. Following the All-Star break, Banchero ranks fourth in the NBA with 29 PPG while shooting 47% from the field. That being said, Orlando lacks compelling offensive players outside Banchero and Franz Wagner. As a unit, the Magic rank 21st in offensive rating since the All-Star break. Conversely, their defense has been one of the most stout groups in the league during this time, ranking third in defensive rating.
As for the Hawks, they have been up-and-down recently, with a 5-5 record in their last 10. As always, with Trae Young at the helm, Atlanta has been efficient on offense and lackluster on defense. Since the All-Star break, the Hawks rank fourth in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating.
As you can see, the Magic and Hawks are two very opposite teams. While Atlanta won the regular season finale between these two clubs this past Sunday, this game was meaningless, as both Orlando and Atlanta were locked into their seeds and rested almost all their key players. Outside this contest, the Magic and Hawks have played each other three times this season, and Orlando won two of these three contests.
Magic vs. Hawks pick, best bet
The Magic’s stifling defense should lead them to a victory on their home floor. While Young is averaging 28.3 PPG against Orlando this season, the Magic have given Most Improved Player of the Year contender Dyson Daniels major issues, with him averaging only 11.7 PPG against Orlando. Daniels’ has become one of the Hawks’ main options after Young and as a whole, Atlanta should struggle to score in this awful road matchup.
Another huge problem for the Hawks is that Banchero has been a stud against them this season. In his three matchups with Atlanta this season, Banchero is averaging 33.3 PPG on a 46.8% field goal percentage. Banchero scored at least 30 points in seven of his final 12 starts of the regular season, and Banchero should put his team on his back in this Play-In matchup.
The Magic are a five-point home favorite for this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook, and backing Orlando to cover is the right call. Orlando is 17-11 ATS when a home favorite this season, and their two wins against the Hawks this season were both by at least six points.
