We’re set for what should be an excellent series in the Western Conference, between two teams that finished the regular season with identical records of 50-32. The Nuggets finished with the 4-seed in this scenario, which gives them home court over the Clippers, but we’ve already seen some significant movement towards the road team in this one. The Clippers opened a +160 underdog on the series line, but we’re down to a pick’em series priced -110 each way on DraftKings Sportsbook — with other shops even favoring the Clippers now. I agree with the move, and feel Game 1 is the perfect spot for Los Angeles to take an early edge in this best-of-seven.
Let’s start with what’s to like about the Clippers, who really flew under the radar early in the season. Kawhi Leonard was sidelined yet again, and expectations were low. But maybe missing Leonard early in the season was exactly what this team needed. It gave the rest of the team the confidence to excel in their roles, while also letting Kawhi ease into the season. We all know the story with Leonard, who has burned out in the playoffs year after year, generally unable to finish the postseason due to his knee injuries.
Leonard played in just 37 games this season, which is a career-low outside of playing in just nine games in his final season with San Antonio. But maybe entering a postseason this fresh is exactly what Kawhi needed? He didn’t play his first game until early January, and has steadily improved each month since. In his last 19 outings, dating back to March 2, Leonard is averaging 25.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists and nearly two steals per game. He’s doing so while shooting over 52% from the field, nearly 43% from downtown and most importantly, playing over 36 minutes per game. If this is the Kawhi Leonard we’re going to see against the Nuggets, this could finally be the version of the Clippers we’ve been waiting to see in the postseason.
James Harden and Norm Powell are also each averaging over 20 points per game, and with Kawhi are three of six Clippers averaging in double figures this season. This is a deep and balanced attack, which is not exactly how you’d describe the Nuggets at the moment. Of course, having Nikola Jokic can mask anything, but as the series goes on, I expect the depth and defense of the Clippers to wear down the Nuggets. While nobody is going to stop Jokic, Ivica Zubac is about as strong of a matchup as you could ask for to go against him. I think that’s a theme here with a defense oriented Clippers team that has the pieces to matchup well here.
That brings us to the coaching change. Michael Malone is a terrific basketball coach, and the Nuggets haven’t even had a chance to miss him yet. I don’t dislike David Adelman, but going through the chess match of a playoff series against a talented team with a strong coaching staff should be a little bit of a disadvantage for Denver. Sure, the Nuggets are 3-0 since making the move, but they caught some breaks in terms of the timing of the teams they played and the motivation of the opposition in each of those games. And again, Adelman will be coaching his fourth game as head coach when Game 1 tips off on Saturday.
The Clippers should have some other advantages here. Most notably, Leonard hasn’t even faced the Nuggets yet this season. So while the Clippers know and have seen how Denver operates, we can’t say the same for the Nuggets. We just saw Los Angeles go on the road on Sunday afternoon and win a huge game in overtime. The game had playoff implications for both the Warriors and Clippers, and the stars stepped up when they were needed most — Leonard finished with 33 points, six rebounds and seven assists (47 minutes), and Harden went for 39 points, seven boards and 10 assists (48 minutes).
This Clippers team is rounding into form at the right time, sitting at 18-3 since March 5. I think they can take that momentum, along with health and coaching advantages and steal Game 1 on the road and eventually go on to win the series.
Best Bet for Game 1: Clippers +2.5 (-110) 1.5-units
Best Bet for the Series: Clippers Win Game 1/Series (+340) 1-unit
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