When the Memphis Grizzlies fired head coach Taylor Jenkins with nine games to play in the regular season, the hope was surely not a Play-In Tournament defeat. Memphis entered the final two games of the season still alive in the race to avoid the Play-In, but a 117-109 defeat to the Denver Nuggets sealed its fate.
Still, anything can happen in the Play-In Tournament, and the Grizzlies can still steal the seventh seed and a favorable first-round matchup against the inexperienced Houston Rockets. It’ll all depend on the shoulder of Ja Morant, who averaged 23.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game during the regular season.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Memphis is a seven-point underdog and the total is set for 229. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Morant.
Best Ja Morant Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ja Morant 30+ Points (+125)
At the end of an inconsistent season, Morant stepped up when it mattered most. Up through the end of January, he was averaging a measly 20.3 points per game on fairly inefficient 45-31-81 shooting splits, and he frequently missed games with a variety of ailments. Since the start of February, while he hasn’t been consistently available, at least he’s put the ball in the basket, averaging 26.8 points per game across his 22 games on slightly-improved efficiency. He’s topped the 30-point threshold six times since the start of March, including thrice in his past five games, serving as the alpha scorer that, for all of his all-around defensive brilliance, Jaren Jackson Jr. can’t be.
The Warriors, of course, have been excellent since trading for Jimmy Butler in February. Since Butler’s debut with the team on February 8, Golden State has posted a 23-8 record and the league’s best defensive rating while also playing at a slower-than-average pace, so it’s not a game where you’d ordinarily expect Morant to put up points. He’s mostly a slasher, ranking fifth in the league in drives per game and posting roughly average efficiency among the 55 players who drive at least 10 times per contest, and the Warriors, with their switchable defenders on the wings, are well-suited to slow him down. Still, I think Golden State has more tactics to stop Jackson or Desmond Bane — namely, with Butler and Draymond Green — than it does to stop Morant with either Stephen Curry or Brandin Podziemski.
Ja Morant 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+100)
This one’s kind of a matter of necessity: although Morant only attempts 32.1% of his shots from beyond the arc, he’s made three or more triples in six of the eight games in which he’s scored 30 or more points. That doesn’t mean he can’t beat the Warriors from two-point range alone — on March 7, in a 122-111 win over the Dallas Mavericks, he attempted 24 of his 29 shots within the arc and scored 31 points, and he made 16 of his 18 twos a week later in a loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. It’s just not likely — the last time he played Golden State, he scored 36, making five of his eight three-point attempts in the process.
Since adding Butler, the Warriors have done a good job at preventing three-pointers from being attempted — again, having Butler and Green helps — but not such a good job at keeping them from going in. Since February 8, opponents have attempted just 34.5 triples per game against Golden State, the fourth-fewest in the league, but have nailed those shots at a 37.3% clip, the third-worst mark in basketball. Green ranks third in contested triples per game across that span, but opponents have shot 38.1% from deep against him and 41.3% against Curry. 16.7% of opponents’ three-point tries have come with the nearest Warriors defender between four and six feet away, the 12th-highest mark in basketball, a shot that Morant hits at a 32.4% clip.
