One of the best pitching duels of the night takes place in Toronto on Tuesday, as Spencer Schwellenbach and the Braves clash with Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays.
After starting the season 0-7, Atlanta has started to turn the corner in 2025, picking up a win in five of its last nine games. Now they’ll send an NL Cy Young hopeful to the mound this evening, with Spencer Strider then set to make his return on Wednesday afternoon. It was an ugly beginning to the campaign for the Braves, but needless to say, things are starting to look up.
Braves vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
It felt like everyone and their grandmother was on Spencer Schwellenbach as a dark horse NL Cy Young candidate this winter, but the right-hander hasn’t taken much time to confirm everyone’s feeling. Through three starts and 20.0 innings, Schwellenbach has allowed just a single earned run. We all know that a .191 BABIP and a 100% strand rate won’t sustain much longer, yet Schwellenbach’s ability to suppress launch angle and limit free passes should make the regression process manageable. He’s truly been one of the league’s best starters and I doubt he’ll have too much of an issue shutting down a Jays lineup that has struggled to do real damage so far in 2025. While Toronto does own MLB’s fourth-highest batting average (.261), it ranks dead-last in home runs (9).
The public did not have the same level of optimism about Kevin Gausman entering the season. The splitter king was one of MLB’s top pitchers a couple years back, but the 34-year-old saw both his average fastball velocity and strikeout rate nosedive in 2024. The result? An ugly 4.71 xERA. The strikeouts haven’t fully come back so far in 2025, though Gausman’s last outing against the Red Sox was very promising. Not only did the RHP not surrender a single earned run over eight frames, but Gausman racked up 10 strikeouts and 17 whiffs. If that version of Gausman toes the rubber on Tuesday, this has the makings of a very low-scoring affair.
Braves vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
The Braves’ overall season numbers at the plate are underwhelming, but things have looked a lot better since the return of Sean Murphy, who has four long balls in just 26 plate appearances. Still, Kevin Gausman is not Easton Lucas. I don’t believe Atlanta is going to have back-to-back home run parades after Monday’s blowout victory. Gausman should be able to keep a lineup without Ronald Acuna, Jurickson Profar and Marcell Ozuna in relative check.
On the other side, the Jays will have issues stringing multiple hits together against Schwellenbach, and the RHP won’t be giving them the benefit of any walks to assist in the run scoring process. The easiest and most likely path to hurting Schwellenbach is the long ball, yet Toronto currently lacks that potential. In general, I’d expect a night with very few runs.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-112)
Schwellenbach’s only allowed one earned run in 2025. I don’t expect that to change much tonight.
Strong Lean: Braves ML (-112)
The Braves have the starting pitching edge and the Jays’ lineup looks pretty bleak without George Springer (wrist).
