The NBA regular season wrapped up its 82-game schedule on Sunday in dramatic fashion as the Golden State Warriors battled to determine their postseason future. They came up just short in an overtime loss and fell to the seventh seed, thus dropping them into the NBA Play-In Tournament bracket where they’ll fight for a true playoff berth.
It turns out history repeats itself — the stage is set for a rematch of the 2023 play-in matchup as the Warriors take on the eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies this Tuesday night. The stakes are high for each of these teams, with the winner earning the No. 7 seed in the playoffs and the right to face an upstart Houston Rockets squad in the first round. Meanwhile, the loser falls into a win-or-go-home matchup for the final playoff spot on Friday against the winner of the Mavericks’ and Kings’ play-in game.
Warriors vs. Grizzlies preview, prediction
This should be an intriguing clash between a couple of teams with completely different outlooks heading into the postseason.
The Warriors’ season is a tale of two halves. On February 6, Golden State’s record was a paltry 25-26 with tension growing around whether Steph Curry would even make an appearance in the playoffs. The next day, the team acquired a disgruntled Jimmy Butler via trade. The rest is history — the Warriors finished the remainder of the season on a 23-8 run and appear rejuvenated with the star in the lineup. Since the All-Star break, Golden State ranks seventh in offensive rating and boasts a league-best defensive rating of 109.3. They’re playing great team basketball, too, sitting top-10 in REB% and first overall in AST%. Butler is exactly what the Warriors needed to take pressure off Curry’s shoulders, but the latter is still capable of going supernova when need be. They’ll be a tough out in the playoffs, assuming they make it in.
They’ll have to battle the Grizzlies in this play-in matchup first, though. Unlike the Warriors, Memphis lacks the consistency and cohesiveness to really strike fear into opponents, especially after parting ways with former head coach Taylor Jenkins on March 28. The Grizzlies had just nine contests remaining at the time and finished out the regular season with a 4-5 record in that span, an unspectacular way to roll into the postseason. The hope is that a renewed focus on the pick and roll game can unlock Ja Morant’s strengths and revive the star point guard’s performance amidst a down year. While the seven-game sample since Jenkins’ firing is small, Morant’s averages of 28.4 points and 6.3 assists on efficient shooting splits over that span show flashes of his old self heading into the Play-In Tournament.
The story of the game will be how the Warriors handle Morant and the Grizzlies’ increasing reliance on pick and roll actions. Morant is clearly most comfortable in these situations which play to his strengths as an athletic guard who excels at getting downhill in a hurry. On the other hand, the Warriors’ defense allows the fourth-fewest points per possession to pick and roll ball handlers at 0.85, as well as the sixth-fewest points per possession to the roll man at 1.06. Can they stop Morant, who might be catching fire at the right time?
Warriors vs. Grizzlies pick, best bet
The difference between these teams is clear. Despite the last-day loss which sent Golden State tumbling into the play-in, the Warriors are one of the NBA’s hottest teams entering this pivotal meeting. It’s hard to pick against Curry, Butler, Draymond Green, and the rest of the team’s veterans, especially in a high-stakes environment. As for the Grizzlies, they’ll be hard-pressed to win this one but hope to catch lightning in a bottle for this single-game format. They’ll have one more chance to make the playoffs, but they’re well aware of the stakes against a dark-horse title contender.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Warriors as seven-point favorites with -305 odds to win on the Moneyline. It’s fairly easy to see why they’re favored to this extent with an elite defense and the league’s third-best net rating since All-Star Weekend. The game total also sits at 229 points.
Where past matchups are concerned, Golden State went 3-1 against Memphis in the season series. However, it’s worth noting Morant missed two of those games and played just 17 minutes in another. Both teams were mostly healthy during their last matchup on April 1, though — a 134-125 Warriors win in which Curry erupted for 52 points, Butler tallied 27 points, and Green notched a triple-double.
The Warriors are great, but that performance represents the peak of their powers. It’s highly unlikely all three players click at the same level on Tuesday night against the Grizzlies. This game isn’t likely to finish in a blowout, so the top pick for this one looks like Memphis +7 at -110 odds. The deciding factor is probably which version of Morant takes the floor, but Jaren Jackson Jr. has taken a leap as a scorer this season and can carry the load at times, too. The Warriors should win, but if the Grizzlies’ offense plays to their strengths, this Play-In Tournament matchup has the makings of a competitive affair with some sneaky upset appeal.
