In the second matchup of this year’s NBA Play-in Tournament, and the first in the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors will host the Memphis Grizzlies. The seedings were up for grabs until overtime of the final regular season game when the Los Angeles Clippers defeated the Golden State Warriors to drop them to the play-in tournament.
While the stakes will be higher, there is a case to be made that the winner of this game will have a clearer pathway through the playoffs compared to the matchup with the Lakers that would have occurred for the Warriors if they had beaten the Clippers. If Golden State can win this play-in matchup, they will have a first-round matchup with the youthful Houston Rockets and have plenty of playoff experience in their favor. Their outlook drastically changed following the midseason addition of Jimmy Butler, with Golden State going 23-7 with Butler in the lineup, they can go toe-to-toe with any team.
Before we can even have the playoff conversation, Golden State will first need to beat the Grizzlies. Memphis also made a shocking move by firing head coach Taylor Jenkins with just nine games remaining in the regular season. Ja Morant has made headlines for seemingly everything except his play of late with the organization’s outlook feeling much different from when they finished with the second-best record in the Western Conference just two years ago.
Golden State enters this matchup as seven-point favorites and -305 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Grizzlies hold +245 odds of pulling off the upset with the game total set at 229.
With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for this Western Conference play-in battle.
Ja Morant Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+105)
There is no shortage of opinions on Ja Morant of late, but the fact of the matter is the Grizzlies star has played some high-level basketball to close out the season, even if he has ruffled some feathers in the process. Morant is averaging 23.3 points, 7.3 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game. He has shot 30.9% from beyond the three-point arc while attempting 5.7 perimeter shots per game. He closed the season on a really strong shooting stretch that involved connecting on 41.3% of his perimeter shots in the final five games of the season and shooting 5-for-8 on three-pointers against Golden State back on April 1st.
The former second overall pick has shown an increased willingness to shoot from the perimeter to close the season, with this being a clear flaw in his game. Morant has attempted 6.5 three-pointers per game over the past 25 games and 7.7 three-point attempts across his past 15 games. He is also making an average of 2.3 three-pointers per game during this stretch and has recorded three or more three-pointers in four of the final five games of the regular season. This includes the matchup with the Warriors in which he shot 5-for-8 on these long-range attempts.
While improving his perimeter shooting is a necessary stride Morant must take in his development, the threat of his drive will always keep this option open. Few players in the league have a first step or explosiveness that is even close to Morant and defenders are forced to overcompensate for this in their positioning. In addition, Golden State ranks 19th in opponents’ three-point percentage while attacking plenty from this area when they have the ball. Expect Morant to be ready to step into center stage in this matchup and be prepared to throw a few grenades on the perimeter by connecting with over 2.5 made three-pointers.
Zach Edey Over 10.5 Rebounds (-120)
The Memphis Grizzlies selected Zach Edey with the ninth overall pick in the past draft after he was looked at as one of the more controversial prospects in recent memory. The 7-foot-4 big man had an incredibly accomplished collegiate career but his post-oriented style of play made many question his NBA fit. There have been some ups and downs throughout the season but Ededy polished off his rookie season by averaging 9.2 points and 8.3 rebounds across his 21.5 minutes per game.
It also is important to note that Edey saw his level of opportunity expand following the coaching change. In the eight games he played following Taylor Jenkins’ firing, Edey clocked 27.9 minutes and produced 9.3 points and 13.4 rebounds per game. Golden State is a bit limited on the interior with Draymond Green likely to be Edey’s primary matchup. These teams last faced off on April 1st, with Edey producing 16 rebounds in the game.
It definitely should not be chalked up as a coincidence that Edey’s opportunities expanded following the coaching change. With the organization having invested the ninth overall pick in the big man, expect his opportunities to continue on the floor. Golden State ranks 15th in opponents’ rebounds per game and 19th in opponents’ defensive rebounds allowed. There is no simple adjustment for Edey’s pure size and he plays with a higher effort level than he gets credit for. Expect Edey to impose himself on the glass and haul in over 10.5 rebounds in his first taste of postseason action just as he has in five of his past six games.
Draymond Green Over 13.5 Assists & Rebounds (-115)
On the other side of the matchup, expect Draymond Green’s presence and impact to be evident throughout this matchup as well. The four-time All-Star is averaging 9.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game this season and has seen each of these numbers increase across the 29 games played alongside Jimmy Butler. The introduction of Butler into the Golden State system has been a smoother process than many expected, but there are still levels this team has not yet hit.
Green has been a foundational part of this Warriors team throughout the four championship victories and this will continue to be the case on Tuesday. Even with the baggage that he carries due to his antics, Green’s production is necessary to the success of the team. All eyes are sure to be on Steph Curry, who continues to battle a thumb injury on his shooting hand. He still commands a gravity that very few players in the league have ever matched and he will remain the epicenter of their offensive attack. Expect Golden State to utilize Curry in more of an off-ball role and for Green to step in as a key playmaker in the offense. Green tallied 12 assists and 10 rebounds in the most recent matchup with the Grizzlies this year.
Across the regular season overall, Green tallied over 13.5 combined assists and rebounds in 22 games, with two of these occurring against Memphis. This is a matchup I expect experience to prove valuable and for Golden State to have a clear advantage in this category. Count on Green to continue doing the dirty work in a way that equates to winning and filling up the box score both on the boards and as a passer. There is a lot at stake in this matchup as the winner will avoid a first-round fate against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Expect the Warriors to be well aware of the gravity of the moment and for Green to record over 13.5 combined assists and rebounds as they desperately try to stay off this playoff path.
