The 82-game NBA regular season is in the books but the battle for a playoff opportunity is not over. To kick off the 2024-25 play-in tournament the Atlanta Hawks will play the Orlando Magic. The play-in tournament was first launched in 2020 and has changed how teams view the final stretch of the season.
Orlando got off to a strong start to the year, opening up with a 15-7 record. They looked to be taking the next step as a franchise but were bothered by injuries and poor perimeter shooting. The Magic finished with a 41-41 record and they enter as the seventh seed. This means they will be hosting this matchup.
Atlanta went 40-42 during the regular season and has been in the play-in tournament every season it has existed. The injury to Jalen Johnson changed their trajectory with the Duke product flashing All-Star potential before being shut down for the season with shoulder surgery. Trae Young is coming off his fourth All-Star appearance and led the NBA in assists this season.
The Orlando Magic enter this game as five-point favorites and -205 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hawks hold +170 odds on the Moneyline to pull off the upset with the game total set at 217.
With the stage set here are my favorite prop bets for the first matchup of the play-in tournament.
Trae Young Over 10.5 Assists (+120)
The outlook for the Atlanta Hawks will be largely dependent on the level of play from Trae Young. The star guard has averaged 24.6 points and a league-leading 11.6 assists during the regular season. While Young still operates with a score-first mentality, he is more impressive as a playmaker at this stage of his career. The threat of his scoring opens up the rest of his game and he has evolved into one of the most talented playmakers in the league.
Orlando is a defensive-minded team that has held opponents to just 105.5 points per game on the season- the best rate in the NBA. The Magic have been plagued by their lack of perimeter shooting all season and forced to become a more defensive-minded team as a result. While Jalen Johnson’s level of play is a huge positive takeaway on the season, without him Atlanta is fairly limited in their number of offensive creators. Expect the full focus to be on preventing the Hawks star from getting rolling offensively and forcing others to beat them. This is especially the case with Young dropping 38 points against this Magic team during the regular season.
The four-time All-Star averaged 11.6 assists per game in the regular season and tallied over 10.5 assists in 44 of the 76 games he played. Expect their game plan to involve allowing anyone else to beat them and for Young to be forced to take control as a passer. Take advantage of the +120 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for Young to record over 10.5 assists just as he has done in 57.9% of the regular-season games.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+150)
The Orlando Magic finished last season ranked 24th in team three-point percentage and had this identified as a need for improvement. They addressed it by signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a three-year contract worth $66 million. The two-time NBA Champion has proven capable of filling a role as a floor spacer on high-level contenders in his career and it was hoped he could help this Magic team take the next step. The opposite occurred with Orlando shooting 31.8% from beyond the three-point arc on the season. This not only is the worst rate in the league but also the lowest perimeter percentage that any NBA team has shot since the Los Angeles Lakers in 2015-16.
Looking at Caldwell-Pope’s production, he has averaged 8.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game. The 31-year-old has shot 34.2% from beyond the three-point arc which is his worst three-point percentage since the 2015-16 season while he was still with the Pistons. For his career, Caldwell-Pope is a 36.7% three-point shooter and he has connected at a 39.0% rate or better in each of the past four seasons.
While the struggles of the season must be acknowledged, all will be forgiven if Caldwell-Pope shows up when the moment matters most. His postseason pedigree is a large reason why he was brought in and this will need to show up as the Magic attempt to earn a true playoff opportunity. Atlanta ranks 16th in opponents’ three-point attempts and 28th in opponents’ three-point percentage on the season. Even amid his struggles, Caldwell-Pope has still connected on at least three three-pointers in 15 regular-season games, including once against the Hawks. Expect Atlanta to be fully focused on stopping Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner from attacking the basket and to be willing to live and die with the three-point looks. Caldwell-Pope will be among the biggest beneficiaries and look for him to connect with at least three three-pointers in the process.
Dyson Daniels Over 10.5 Assists & Rebounds (-125)
It was a successful season for Dyson Daniels who emerged as a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player candidate. Daniels averaged 14.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game while leading the NBA with 3.0 steals per game in his first season in Atlanta.
While a large part of his impact does not show on the stat sheet, expect Daniels to see some significant minutes and be a key part of the game plan as Atlanta looks to slow down Banchero and Wagner. Daniels is among the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, with defense being a legitimate concern for Atlanta’s overall outlook. The Australian wing must still find a way to make an impact on offense as well and expect Daniels to have some success as a playmaker and on the boards.
Since the start of March, Daniels has averaged 6.7 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game, logging over 10.5 assists and rebounds in 14 of these 21 games. He also finished with 11 rebounds and four assists during one of the two regular-season matchups with Orlando. Expect Daniels to play more than the 33.8 minutes per game he is averaging with his skill set being important, and for him to make his impact felt in the box score beyond just the defensive side of the ball. Count on Daniels to log over 10.5 combined assists and rebounds and for his presence to be notable throughout this matchup.
