I’m back with my first MLB Prop Bets article of the week for Monday, April 14th. I’m really liking the MLB slate we have for tonight, with 10 games on the schedule, starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. All the bets listed below are available on DraftKings Sportsbook if you want to tail along.
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MLB Prop Bets for April 14, 2025
Los Angeles Dodgers over 5.5 total runs -105
Last time Antonio Senzatela pitched, I talked about his ridiculous 0.00 ERA that was accompanied by an xERA of 6.69. As expected, his luck ran out in his last start against the Brewers, as he allowed nine runs (eight earned) on eight hits, including two home runs, through 4.1 innings. Coming into this game against the Dodgers, his numbers are much more on point with a 5.14 ERA and an xERA of 5.84.
I think tonight, we’ll see more of what we saw in that game against the Brewers. He’s not fooling anyone with what he throws, which is mostly a four-seam fastball, throwing it 55% of the time. Opposing batters are hitting .395 against it with an xBA of .328. This won’t be shocking to hear, but the Dodgers hit the fastball extremely well. Since last season, tonight’s expected lineup has a .354 wOBA with a .204 ISO and a 13.2% BB%. Senzatela’s next pitch, a slider, won’t fare much better. The Dodgers have a .390 wOBA with a .324 ISO against that pitch since last season.
The Rockies bullpen won’t provide much relief once Senzatela is out of this game. It’s been a major issue since the season began, showing few signs of improvement. Over the past week, this bullpen has combined for a 4.26 ERA with a 7.26 FIP and a 6.6 BB/9 through 19 innings. Despite a high 5.5-run total, I’m comfortable taking the Dodgers to go over tonight.
DraftKings Network provides FREE betting splits. Check out how the public is betting on the games, totals, and run lines!
San Diego Padres over 11.5 total bases -125
Team total bases has been one of my favorite new markets that DraftKings Sportsbook has offered over the past year. Nothing is more frustrating than taking the over on a team total, watching them put a ton of men on base but fail to knock them in. Team total bases take the runs out of the equation and focus solely on bases, earned through hits.
The Padres are averaging 13.8 total bases per game. Tonight, they face a contact pitcher in Jameson Taillon, who has gotten off to a horrific start. His 6.06 ERA is accompanied by a 5.31 xERA and a 5.21 FIP. Home runs have been cruising out of the park, as he’s allowed four through 16.1 innings. Behind Taillon is a Cubs bullpen that isn’t overpowering, with one of the lowest K/9 rates in the league at 7.5. These numbers should ensure plenty of contact for the Padres’ bats tonight, leading me to bet the over on their total bases.
Want to see who is pitching today? Check out our Starting Pitchers article to see today’s matchups.
Tanner Houck under 4.5 strikeouts +105
The Rays have been one of the toughest teams to strike out this season. Entering today, they have a 19.3% strikeout rate against righties, ranking 25th out of 30 teams. They face Tanner Houck tonight, whose strikeout numbers have declined. Since 2022, when he posted a K/9 of 8.4, Houck has averaged less than a strikeout per inning. Through three starts this season, his K/9 has dropped significantly to 5.5, the lowest of his career. Six of his 10 strikeouts came against the Orioles in four innings; he’s had two each in starts against the Blue Jays and Rangers. With the Rays’ low strikeout rate, they’re likely to make plenty of contact tonight.
Same Game Parlay for Dodgers and Padres
I have a SGPx up on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight, which features some of the prop bets I like. You can view the parlay below.
For analysis on this SGPx – you can check out my MLB Parlay article on DraftKings Network.
To find this parlay follow these steps on DraftKings Sportsbook
- Log into DraftKings Sportsbook
- Go to the search bar
- Search “Steve Buchanan”
- Place your bet on this three-leg parlay!
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB info and bets! @SBuchanan24
