Major League Baseball has a packed Monday night with 10 games scheduled under the lights. Several teams are sending their aces to the mound while a few others are at the back end of their rotation. It’s a widely varied group taking the hill on Monday night, but there are so many angles to consider. From the 20 options taking the bump, let’s take a look at some of my top starting pitcher prop bets for Monday, including plays from Dustin May, Tarik Skubal and Easton Lucas.
Every day and night of the season, DraftKings Sportsbook offers multiple ways to get in on the action with player props, Moneylines and picks against the spread from each MLB contest. You can also pick series winners, award winners and team futures as well, so be sure to check out all the options available on the MLB page of DK Sportsbook.
Here is a look at my top starting pitcher prop bets for this Monday night.
Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Dustin May to Record a Win (-105)
The Rockies have lost five of their last six games and have the worst record in baseball at 3-12 and are just 1-8 on the road this season. They roll into Chavez Ravine to face the Dodgers coming off losing three straight games against the Padres and not scoring a run in the entire series. They only managed nine hits in the entire three-game set in San Diego. Their starting pitcher for Monday night, Antonio Senzatela, has given up an average of nine hits per start in his three games this season, and the Dodgers should be able to provide May with plenty of run support (more info in my top MLB Stacks for the night).
May doesn’t have a win yet this season, and lots has to go right for starting pitchers to get wins, which is usually why the odds are pretty long in the “to record a win” section. However, the Rockies have been so bad and the Dodgers’ lineup so good that May is on the board at -105.
He has gone long enough to qualify for a win (five innings) in each of his first two starts of the season. May gave up just one unearned run against the Braves in his debut and took the loss in his last start against the Nationals after allowing three runs (one earned) in six innings. He has issued three free passes in each of his two starts but has thrown 80+ pitches, showing the team trusts him to go deep enough into the game that a win should be a good possibility for him on Monday.
I usually avoid odds this low in my win picks for Starting Pitcher Prop Bets, but this feels like a relatively safe play given how bad the Rockies have looked so far this season.
Easton Lucas over 5+ strikeouts (+130)
Lucas had eight strikeouts in an impressive home start against the Red Sox in his last start, allowing just three hits in 5 1/3 shutout innings to get his second win of the season. The 28-year-old lefty spent time with the Athletics, Tigers and Blue Jays last season but has looked very sharp in the early part of this year.
On Monday, he’ll look to keep rolling against the Braves, who have the second-highest K% of any team in the MLB this season. The Braves are hitting just .227 with a .301 wOBA on the season and have been even worse against lefties, hitting only .185 with a .244 wOBA and 25.6% strikeout rate against southpaws.
Lucas showed enough upside in his last start that I love getting plus-money at only five strikeouts. You can bet the Lucas strikeout ladder at 4+ strikeouts at -175 and go even higher up to 6+ strikeouts at +285 to be more aggressive. He looked good enough in his last start and the Braves’ offense has been bad enough that that number is definitely still in play.
Starting Pitcher Race to 3 Strikeouts (Both Pitchers Must Start): Tarik Skubal over Tyler Alexander (-120)
Skubal led the MLB with 228 strikeouts last season and has picked up 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings over his last two outings after struggling a little on Opening Day against the Dodgers. He’ll go against Tyler Alexander in this race to three strikeouts. These “quick-hitter” picks like this have been going very well in my starting pitcher prop bets this season, and getting Skubal as only a slight favorite is a great value.
Alexander used to pitch for the Tigers, so he’ll be facing his former team, which could work either for or against him. The big advantage he has is that as the home team starter, he will get to pitch first in each frame. The other factor in his favor is that the Tigers have a higher K% than the Brewers. However, I don’t think those advantages are nearly enough to give him the win against a strikeout master like Skubal.
Skubal looked in top form in his last start against the Yankees, with six strikeouts and no walks in six shutout innings. Alexander only lasted 3 2/3 innings in his last start against the Rockies in Colorado, giving up two runs on six hits and two walks in a rough outing that was hidden by his team’s run support at Coors Field.
