We’ve finally got a full slate of games with decent enough Moneylines and run lines that my best bets article can be solely based on ATS and outright-winning bets. Below are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Chicago Cubs ML (+130) at San Diego Padres
Who really wants to bet against this Cubs offense right now? While Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Carson Kelly, and the rest of the scorching lineup mostly took the night off against Glasnow, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch took care of business for everyone else. That’s a sterling example of a lineup that’s managing to gel on a game-to-game basis—whether by luck, or simply by positive vectors for PCA and the rest of the baby Cubs.
It’s not like they needed to travel too far after last night’s effort; just a few hours along the coast to San Diego. And it’s also not as if the Padres’ starter, Dylan Cease, has really rounded into ace form yet. His barrel rate is in the 21st percentile (11.9%), and he’s only generating ground balls 38.9% of the time. That’s not great for an offense whose launch angles and exit velocity rank among the best in the league as a team.
This is a bit of a momentum play, and I know the Cubs might be tired. They also just got the news yesterday that their top-of-the-rotation man, Justin Steele, will miss the rest of the season with elbow tendinitis. This truly could be a fine spot to back the Padres to sneak a win by a tired squad.
But I’m not sure this offense wants to give anybody any indication it’ll start ranking outside the top-five in the league in runs, batting average, home runs, and slugging percentage. The Cubs check all those boxes. How you gonna bet against a lineup like that in April?
Other side of the same coin: why would you want to bet against the Padres right now? 13-3, 10-0 record at home. Best record in the MLB, in fact. Well, it’s the Cubs’ time, ten years removed from the year they called up Kris Bryant and made it to the 2015 NLDS.
Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+145) at Milwaulkee Brewers
A Skubal slip if ever there was one, really. The Tigers’ offense can disappear, as Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter—undeniably the two A-potential stars in this lineup—both have OPSes under .800. Both feel like they’re on the brink of true breakout seasons, however. We like what we’re seeing to start the season from once-disgraced Spencer Torkelson, though. And it’s true that this lineup can hang multiple numbers on the board with just one swing of the bat—Torkelson has five home runs, Carpenter has four, Greene has three.
So we’ll take the Tigers to win by two, here. The Brewers are fifth in the MLB with 81 runs scored, and scored four and five, respectively, in their last two losses. So we really are banking on Skubal’s penchant for blanking teams. He didn’t let up a run his last start against the Yankees, and only allowed five hits.
The Tigers are fun. Skubal is elite. The Brewers are sure pesky, and can bust a spread/run bet with one swing of the bat, too. I’ll just back the more dominant pitcher tonight to give his ascending offense space to ball out.
Toronto Blue Jays (-105) vs. Atlanta Braves
You want to talk about positive regression? Yeah—there’s massive positive regression incoming for the Toronto Blue Jays in the power department. Among the star players on their roster who currently have zero home runs: Vlad, Bo, and, to be honest, I thought Santander had yet to yak one, but he’s done just that. Hit a single home run. My point remains.
Jays are at the Dome tonight, and the Braves offense—though on the rise—has struggled in its own right. Grant Holmes isn’t the guy you want running out against a home-run-hungry team, however. He’s in the bottom-20 percentile in BB%age, barrel %age, hard hit %age, ground ball %age, average exit velocity, and xERA.
It all sets up for a Blue Jays bash tonight in Toronto. Easton Lucas’s advanced metrics back his stellar start—he’s got a 1.83 xERA (92nd percentile), .187 xBA (86th percentile), and a 0.0 barrel rate (84th percentile).
Oh—and he’s left-handed. So that’ll do plenty to negate Matt Olson’s prodigious swing. Go Jays.
