The Chicago Cubs are on fire, and they’re bringing that heat to Petco Park for a showdown with the San Diego Padres. Both teams are scorching, and for both sides it’s a classic case of potent offense vs. shaky pitching. With the Cubs lighting up the scoreboard and the Padres maintaining their unblemished home record, this one has all the makings of a thrilling, high-stakes matchup. I’ll run through my three favorite bets for this game tonight, including prop bets and against-the-spread notes that align with my Padres vs. Cubs game prediction and preview.
Also, I’ve got a full-slate best bets column for today here, if you’re interested in perusing markets beyond just this game.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Padres vs. Cubs best bets for 4/14/25
Cubs Moneyline (+124)
Let’s not overthink this one—the Cubs moneyline is the clear call. I’ve been plugging this all over today. The Cubs have been absolutely dominant on the road this year, posting a 7-3 record. They’ve been making opposing pitchers pay, ranking first in the MLB in runs (6.44 per game) and first in RBIs (113). With Kyle Tucker hitting .324 and already notching five home runs, they’re a threat in every at-bat. On the other hand, Dylan Cease (7.98 ERA) has been struggling, and that spells trouble against an offense this hot. Sure, the Padres are undefeated at home, but this Cubs lineup is too powerful to shut down entirely. With a red-hot offense and Cease not firing on all cylinders, another Cubs road win is the play.
You can read my full breakdown of the game here, if you want advanced analysis on game script and some more statistical analysis.
Over 7.5 Total Runs (+100)
The Over 7.5 total runs feels like a no-brainer. The Cubs offense is on a tear, averaging 6.44 runs per game, and even though the Padres are one of the top offenses at home, they’ve got Dylan Cease—who’s given up nine runs in his last start—on the mound. That’s an invite for the Cubs to keep the pedal to the metal. Both teams can score in bunches, and with pitchers like Taillon (6.06 ERA) and Cease struggling to get it right, this is a recipe for a high-scoring affair. There’s no reason this game doesn’t clear the 7.5 total with the offensive firepower both sides bring.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Hits (-130)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been on a tear for the Cubs, and this prop is almost too easy. With a .351 batting average, he’s been getting on base at a steady clip, and tonight, he’ll face Jameson Taillon, who ranks in the 20th percentile in xBA and 24th percentile in xERA. That’s a pitcher the Cubs have no trouble with, and Crow-Armstrong is the kind of guy to capitalize on that. With the Cubs likely to put up runs in a high-scoring game, getting Over 0.5 hits for -130 feels like a solid lock.
