The 82-game marathon that is the NBA regular season is nearly over with all 30 teams set to face off on the final day of the regular season. Between 1:00 p.m. and 3:30 p.m. ET, 15 matchups will be taking place with seedings still set to be decided in the Western Conference.
Most notably, the Los Angeles Clippers will face the Golden State Warriors with the Clippers currently one game ahead of them in the standings. The Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, and Timberwolves each have their seedings up for grabs and are separated by just one game heading into the final day of the season. One of these teams will slip into the play-in tournament while the others will fill out the fourth, fifth, and sixth seeds.
Keep an eye on the injury reports as plenty of teams are getting an early start on resting with their seed already established. Jayson Tatum, Anthony Davis, Donovan Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jaylen Brown, are just a few names already ruled out for the busy slate.
Across the full slate of 15 NBA matchups, here are my favorite prop bets on the final Sunday NBA regular season action.
Adem Bona to Record 26+ Points & Assists (-120)
The Philadelphia 76ers got an early start compared to the rest of the NBA in ruling out all their notable stars. Injuries to Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey prevented the team from ever finding its stride and Philadelphia is set to miss the playoffs this year for the first time for the first time since 2016-17. With Embiid and Andre Drummond having been out for an extended time already, it has been Adem Bona to step in and open some eyes with his play.
The UCLA product was selected in the second round of this year’s NBA Draft and handed a standard contract before the season starter. Bona is averaging 5.6 points and 4.1 rebounds in his 15.3 minutes per game on the season overall. However, he has stepped into the starting lineup for the past eight games averaging 15.3 points and 8.3 rebounds in 30.6 minutes per night. He has recorded 26+ combined points and assists in four of these past eight games and five times overall this year.
Even under the best of circumstances, the Chicago Bulls have struggled on the interior this season. They rank 28th in opponents’ points per game, 28th in opponents’ rebounds allowed, and rank dead last in opponents’ points in the paint. The Bulls are not going to as extensive lengths to rest players as other teams, but Josh Giddey and the 8.1 rebounds per game he provides will be missing today. Look for Adem Bona’s athleticism and effort level to shine against a team that has struggled on the interior all season. Count on the Sixers’ big man to make the most of the final game of his rookie season and produce 26+ combined points and rebounds for the fifth time in the past nine games.
Steph Curry Under 4.5 Made Three-Pointers (-120)
While you typically won’t get rich betting against Steph Curry in elimination games, this is a spot where I think you can get away with it. Curry is battling a thumb injury which forced him to undergo X-rays in the locker room during Friday night’s game. He is officially listed as questionable for this game. While Curry will surely be on the court if he is physically capable, any sort of hand issue can be bothersome as a shooter.
Curry was limited to 14 points in Friday night’s game shooting 6-for-14 from the field and 2-for-8 from beyond the arc. While he is leading the NBA in three-point makes and attempts per game on the season, Curry is averaging 4.4 perimeter makes per game and has been held to under 4.5 made three-pointers in 42 of the 69 games he has played.
In addition, the Clippers have embraced a defensive-minded approach this season. They rank fourth in opponents points allowed, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, and fifth in opponents three-point percentage. Curry has not played this Clippers team since November but has been held to under 4.5 made three-pointers in one of the two previous matchups while it took 15 three-point attempts to clear this total in the other.
Expect this matchup to have a playoff-like atmosphere and for every point to be difficult to come by. Limiting Curry’s impact from the perimeter will be at the top of the Clippers’ list of defensive priorities and if he is at all bothered by his thumb injury expect this to be possible. Curry will surely have his moments, but count on the future Hall of Famer to be limited to four or fewer three-point makes.
James Harden Over 8.5 Assists (-130)
On the other side of this matchup, James Harden will be looking to put an exclamation point on what should be regarded as a successful season for the 11-time All-Star. Harden deserves immense credit for helping to keep the Clippers afloat amid Kawhi Leonard’s injury uncertainty and shouldering the load of the offense regularly. He is averaging 22.6 points, 8.7 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game on the year.
While the Clippers have exceeded expectations on the season overall this will be a fateful last matchup in the regular season. A victory assures they will secure a top-six playoff seed while a loss, depending on what happens in the other matchups, could result in Los Angeles hosting a play-in tournament matchup. Expect Harden and the Clippers to bring their best punch today looking to avoid this.
Harden has stepped up as a scorer at a regular rate this season. But at this stage of his career, his most important skill is his playmaking. The two-time assists champion is averaging 8.7 assists per game this season and has recorded over 8.5 assists in 39 games this season. These numbers have increased since Kawhi Leonard has been more available with Harden averaging 9.7 assists across the 36 games he has played with Leonard.
The Warriors deserve credit for an improved defense this season but Harden has still had success against them. He has recorded over 8.5 assists in two of the three matchups thus far including tallying as many as 16 assists in a game and averaging 11.3 assists per game during this stretch. Count on Harden to step up as the floor general of the offense and control the game as a passer today. Look for him to record over 8.5 assists for the 40th time this season with Leonard alongside him as the Clippers make their final push for seedings.
Jose Alvarado to record 19+ Points & Assists (-110)
A loaded injury report is nothing new for the New Orleans Pelicans who have dealt with injuries at about the highest rate in the league all season. The organization never got a chance to see the roster as designed and will now address these questions in the offseason. One player who has continued to make the most of his expanded opportunity has been Jose Alvarado. The scrappy guard is averaging 10.3 points, 4.6 assists, and 2.4 rebounds across his 24.2 minutes of action.
Since the season went completely wrong, Alvardo has seen his opportunity expand even further. Over his past 16 games, he has played 26.2 minutes per game, averaging 12.3 points and 5.3 assists per contest. He has recorded 20+ combined points and assists in three of his past four games and will put a bow on the season as they face the Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City ran away with the top seed in the conference and will be resting all of their notable starters. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace will headline this extensive list.
The Pelicans will continue to be without CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, and Herb Jones with Yves Missi, Jordan Hawkins, Bruce Brown, and Kelly Olynyk each also ruled out today. Look for Alvardo to make the most of his opportunities as one of the only truly capable ball handlers and shot-creators in the offense. He will have plenty of chances to run the offense and probe the paint with the ball in his hands looking to create. Count on him to have success against the Thunder backups and for Alvardo to finish his season on a high note by recording 19+ combined points and assists for the fourth time in the past five games.
