While Rory McIlroy hunts down his first green jacket and the completion of his career grand slam, we’ve got a full fifteen-game slate of MLB action on Sunday. Eleven of the first pitches hit the catchers’ mitts before the 3:00 hour on the east coast, so we’re going to focus on the four games that start beyond 4:00pm ET for our wagers today. Below are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Seattle Mariners (-130) vs. Texas Rangers
A walkoff win on Wednesday courtesy of Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena. Two wins against the rival Rangers at home to start the weekend, and Logan Gilbert slated to hit the bump against Nathan Eovaldi for the away squad. Baked into this reasonably-but-uninspiringly-juiced Moneyline is the expectations that the Mariners might sit some starters today. Perhaps they’re satisfied with their week; they’ve shown Sodo Mojo, for sure.
But Seattle’s not about to let a Gilbert start on Sunday evening baseball go loudly into the void. They’ll play more starters today than they might usually on a Sunday. With their ace on the mound, expect Seattle to be aggressive at the plate against Eovaldi, who’s known for leaving a running fastball or two over the sweet spot.
Tyler Glasnow u17.5 total outs vs. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are fresh off an 18-0 rout of the Dodgers in LA last night on a Roki Sasaki start. It’s an impressive showing for an offensive that we might consider taking very seriously going forward. With Kyle Tucker singlehandedly out-producing other MLB teams, Dansby Swanson’s power surge, Michael Busch’s round into form, and Caron Kelly’s productive bat from the catcher slot, they’re deliberately tough on starting pitching. That’s not to say anything if Pete Crow-Armstrong has a good game; that dude is a terror on the basepaths, and can send a starter into a blender with a single, HBP, or walk.
The Cubs rank first in total runs, sixth in batting average, second in OBP, and fifth in slugging percentage this year—this is throughout the entire MLB. That’s good enough for me to believe Glasnow will get chased before he clocks six full innings on the bump. He’s yet to go even 5.1 in a game yet, so it’s feasible the Dodgers are willing to let him stretch out the count today.
But if the Cubs find something—if this Chicago lineup finds anything, right now—the Dodgers are turning to their bullpen in the sixth.
Colin Rea o3.5 strikeouts (+145) at Los Angeles Dodgers
Let’s take the plus-odds here. Rea only has one start so far this season, and he logged only two Ks in 5.1 innings pitched. That’s significantly lower than his career 22.2% strikeout rate (it’s currently 10.0%). This is about positive regression against a lineup that might feel a bit overaggressive after getting blanked on Saturday. It’s Sunday Night Baseball, and swings should be big.
Rea has some good stuff, and uses it; so far, he’s thrown his sweeper 26.% of the time this year. He’s also probably going to work his splitter more into this start; he only threw it 6.0% of the time in his first run. I like Rea’s breaking stuff to have some momentum after a massive Cubs statement last night on the west coast.
Four strikeouts isn’t that outlandish for +145 odds.
