The Diamondbacks made a massive acquisition this offseason when they signed pitcher Corbin Burnes. The right-hander landed a six-year, $210 million deal with the Snakes, joining one of baseball’s best rotations. Tonight, the 30-year-old will get to face his old team, the Brewers. Can Arizona’s ace lead his new squad to a win this weekend?
The D-Backs enter as heavy favorites (-180) vs. Milwaukee on Saturday, with the over/under set at nine runs. Before the start of tonight’s contest, here’s my favorite Corbin Burnes player prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Corbin Burnes O 4.5 hits allowed (-130)
It’s been a rocky start to Burnes’ tenure in the desert. Through two outings, he’s allowed six earned runs over 9.1 innings pitched. Still, such a small sample size doesn’t outweigh a career filled with elite production. Since 2020, only Aaron Nola (970) has notched more strikeouts than Burnes (957). During that time, only Max Scherzer (1.02) has recorded a lower WHIP (1.03).
Numbers such as those are hard to come by, especially in today’s age of frequent bullpen usage. Burnes hasn’t been asked to pitch more than five innings thus far, but there’s a decent chance that changes tonight. The four-time All-Star has thrown at least 89 pitches in both of his starts. Unfortunately, he’s also allowed a total of 18 baserunners. If Burnes’ command is better on Saturday, Arizona might let him flirt with six frames.
The biggest edge the visitors have tonight is that they’re familiar with the man on the mound. Burnes spent the first six years of his career in Milwaukee before being traded to the Orioles last winter. Following a rough first few games, this Brewers offense has begun to hit its stride. The team has produced the 11th-most hits per game this season (8.21). That number has risen to 9.14 away from home.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see Burnes move past his early-season struggles and lead Arizona to a victory. Still, even the sport’s best pitchers need some time to get into a groove. The former Cy Young winner might not allow many runs, but traffic on the base paths should be expected.
