It is a loaded night in the NBA with all 30 teams facing off and two games remaining on each team’s regular season schedule. The Los Angeles Lakers take on the Houston Rockets in the final game of this massive slate. Houston has officially clinched the second seed in the Western Conference and will be back in the playoffs for the first time since the 2019-20 season. Los Angeles sits just below them at third place in the conference, but much more is still up for grabs.
The third and eighth seed in the Western Conference are separated by just 2.0 games in the standings. It will be a battle across the final two games as the Lakers, Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, Grizzlies, and Timberwolves sort out what order they will enter the playoffs. The Lakers have clinched a spot, but will need to solidify their seeding with at least one more victory.
With the second seed already locked in, the Rockets look set to turn the page and rest some notable players. Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, Dillon Brooks, Tari Eason, and Jae’Sean Tate have all already been ruled out for tonight’s game, so it is worth checking for final injury updates before tip-off. Only Maxi Kleber has been ruled out for the Lakers, with LeBron James listed as probable.
The Lakers enter this matchup as 12-point favorites at -700 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rockets are +500 underdogs on the Moneyline, and the game total is set at 227.5 points.
Best Prop Bets for Lakers vs. Rockets on DraftKings Sportsbook
LeBron James Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-145)
Perimeter shooting will never be the first thing that pops to mind when you think of LeBron James as a basketball player. However, the 40-year-old has done an excellent job evolving with the sport and becoming more effective from beyond the three-point arc in the late stages of his career. This has become especially important since starting to share the floor with Luka Doncic.
On the season overall, James is shooting 37.8% from beyond the three-point arc on 5.7 perimeter shots per game. He also has shot the ball much better when playing at home, where tonight’s game will take place. James has connected on 43.5% of his three-point attempts inside Crypto.com Arena this season. He enters tonight having made over 1.5 three-pointers in 25 of the 33 home games he has played, including three straight home games and five of the past six games played in Crypto.com arena.
Houston has a hard-nosed defensive-minded team but is locked into the second seed and will be extremely short-handed tonight. This is the third matchup between these two sides with James shooting two-for-four and four-for-seven from beyond the three-point arc in the previous two games. Expect James to continue looking comfortable operating as a floor spacer next to Luka Doncic and be willing to let it fly from deep tonight. The -145 odds are a bit steep, but he was -180 for this same bet in the previous game, so I like taking a swing on it at this price. Look for James to continue to showcase his perimeter shooting and knock down over 1.5 made three-pointers tonight.
Austin Reaves Over 19.5 Points (-125)
LeBron James and Luka Doncic will continue to dominate the headlines, but there is a case to be made that Austin Reaves’ level of play has been the biggest storyline surrounding the Lakers of late. The undrafted guard continues to take his game to new heights and prove he has more skill and potential than many ever gave him credit for.
On the season, Reaves is averaging 20.2 points, 5.8 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game. He is averaging 22.2 points per game since the All-Star break and has recorded over 19.5 points in 13 of the past 16 games. Luka Doncic stole the spotlight in the previous game as he made his return to Dallas, with Reaves being held to just 11 points, but the Oklahoma product recorded over 19.5 points in five consecutive games before this.
One of the foundational aspects of the Lakers’ offense is allowing Reaves to attack guys off the dribble. JJ Redick has been extremely vocal about their belief that with Doncic and James drawing the top two defenders, Reaves taking on the opponents’ third-best perimeter defender is sometimes their biggest mismatch. Expect this to be magnified with all the players set to miss the action for Houston tonight. In addition, Reaves does not quite have the same equity built up for sitting out blowouts just yet. While he surely will be pulled once the game is under control, expect Reaves to remain in a bit longer than James or Doncic and have a chance to chase his statistics. One way or another count on the 26-year-old to finish the season strong and record over 19.5 points tonight.
Gabe Vincent to Record 15+ Points (+850)
In the final game of a loaded NBA slate, it is worth getting a little wild. Gabe Vincent has had a strange two seasons in Los Angeles. After breaking out for the Miami Heat, he was handed a free-agent contract to join the Lakers and has largely underwhelmed. Vincent was limited to just 11 games last year due to injury and struggled to find his place in the rotation for most of this season. However, he broke out this season late in the year and looks to have cemented his spot in the playoff rotation with better play in recent weeks.
Overall, Vincent is averaging 6.5 points, 1.4 assists, and 1.3 rebounds in his 21.2 minutes per game. Since the All-Star break, his scoring average has increased to 7.8 points per game, and Vincent averaged 9.7 points per game in March. The standard scoring prop for the 28-year-old is set at 6.5 with the under favored at -120 odds.
With the Rockets set to rest several notable starters and having nothing to play for, it should not be a shock if this game gets out of hand early. Assuming LeBron James and Luka Doncic see some expanded rest, someone needs to step in and run the offense and Vincent should see his role expanded in this category. Even amidst his struggles with the Lakers, he has scored 15+ points in four games this season and done it as recently as March 31st. Vincent is capable of getting hot and filling up the scoresheet in a hurry if he gets the chance. With the Rockets’ injury report in mind, it is worth taking a swing on the +850 payout for Gabe Vincent to record 15+ points for the fifth time this season.
