Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently view Giannis Antetokounmpo as a true 50/50 in tonight’s home game for the Bucks versus the Pelicans. The Bucks are mostly playing for seeding at this point, with a two-game advantage on the sixth seed Pistons and three games remaining for both teams. It wouldn’t be a shocker to see Giannis sit in a game that should be winnable for Milwaukee whether he plays or not.
If Giannis plays, he should have an easy situation against a Pelicans team that’ll be without roughly eight of the top players in their rotation. Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections have Giannis’ expected output at 29.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists if he plays tonight. With the 14.5-point spread favoring Milwaukee, it does seem like the current expectation is a lean towards Giannis playing — but you never know at this point of the NBA season with half the league ruled out.
If Giannis sits, there’d be a major impact upon the remaining Bucks. Here’s how some of Giannis’ key Bucks teammates would be impacted whether Giannis sits or plays:
- Brook Lopez projects for 14.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists (13.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists if Giannis plays)
- Kyle Kuzma projects for 17.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists (13.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.0 assists if Giannis plays)
- Ryan Rollins projects for 12.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists (9.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists if Giannis plays)
Bobby Portis would also likely benefit in DraftKings tournaments and prop betting markets after playing just shy of 29 minutes last game in a matchup versus Minnesota where Giannis was active. He may play off the bench again, but Portis’s minutes ceiling could grow exponentially if Giannis isn’t in.
Lines are currently down on prop bets for Bucks besides Giannis on DraftKings Sportsbook. Keep an eye on the Greek Freak’s status as we get closer to Pelicans-Bucks at 8:00 p.m. ET with big ramifications afoot for DraftKings DFS tournaments and prop bet markets.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
