It’s still early in the 2025 season, but the Philadelphia Phillies have to feel great about where they stand so far. Philadelphia is 8-3 — the third-best record in the NL — and bested the previously unbeaten Los Angeles Dodgers in the teams’ first series of the season.
Jesús Luzardo has to feel great about how his season has started, too. The 27-year-old Venezuelan-Peruvian is 2-0 so far, having given up just two runs on seven hits, striking out 19 and walking just four. He’d never pitched at an ace level before, so it’s too early to call him a Cy Young contender, but the fact that he’s ranked in the top quartile in pretty much every conceivable pitching stat is optimism-inspiring.
Luzardo and the Phillies will take on one of the league’s coldest teams, the 2-9 Atlanta Braves, tonight at 7:15 p.m. ET. No team has ever made the postseason after starting 0-7, as Atlanta did, but to be fair, it’s faced some pretty difficult opponents so far.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Philadelphia is a 1.5-run underdog and the total is set for 7. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bet centered around Luzardo.
Best Jesús Luzardo Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jesús Luzardo 7+ Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
Luzardo had never posted a strikeout rate north of 30.0% for his entire career up to this point, but this season, that number is up to 41.0% so far. That rate clearly isn’t sustainable — although he hasn’t thrown enough innings to make the league’s leaderboard, that figure would lead the league — but his improvement might well be legitimate. While it would be easy to write off his growth if he weren’t at a prime age and if he’d faced easy competition, he hasn’t; Luzardo racked up 11 strikeouts in his opening start against the Washington Nationals, who had the league’s fourth-fewest in 2024, and added eight more against the Dodgers, whose absurd offensive talent speaks for itself.
For all of their offensive travails, the Braves actually haven’t struck out much this season. Despite ranking near the bottom of the league in most major statistical categories, Atlanta is near the middle of the pack in strikeouts. But since the Braves don’t get a ton of hits, innings tend to end quickly, which should allow Luzardo to go deeper into the game and rack up more strikeouts. Atlanta has also posted just a .552 OPS against southpaws, the sixth-lowest mark in the league, although the sample size — 88 plate appearances — is small.
