Sit back and enjoy the day baseball, will you? We’re not exactly interested in placing any wagers until the evening slate, anyways. Let the blood pressure stay cool while the sun’s still out, etc. Best to just watch the Tigers be pesky and run through my predictions, picks, best bets, and favorite prop bets for the MLB games tonight, don’t you think?
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Ryan Pepiot 7+ Strikeouts (+105) at Los Angeles Angels
The odds are against us here, but that’s just fine. I think the Rays have found their guy in Pepiot. And the Angels, who have a 22.2% strikeout rate and just under a 9.9% walk rate through the first twelve games, are likely to play right into Pepiot’s 76th-percentile chase rate (32.9%). I think it’s clear Pepiot’s playing with his swing-and-miss stuff a bit less to begin the season, so far, which might explain the plus-odds on this line. His 2025 22.2% strikeout rate is markedly down from his career rate of 25.7%.
Though Trout still anchors Los Angeles’ lineup, only two players on the Angels have a batting WAR higher than 0.1: Kyren Paris and Logan O’Hoppe. They have a 23.1% strikeout rate and a 32.3% strikeout rate, respectively. It’s an order against which Pepiot might feel comfortable deploying his slider, which he’s only thrown 35 times (20.2% of his total pitches) so far in 2025.
It feels like the right spot for a top-of-the-rotation starter to hang some Ks on an uninspiring home team.
Jarren Duran to hit HR (+650) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
While Toronto takes it’s well-earned victory lap for finally ponying up to lock down a star player north of the border, Jarren Duran is doing a bit of humanity PR work parallel to his middling start at the plate in 2025. He was brave enough to share the moving story of his suicide attempt amidst last year’s on-/off-field controversies, and he’s worked his image into one the Boston fans are now more eager than ever to get behind.
We’re not just playing on feel, however (or feel-good, rather). Duran is 7-for-19 against Kevin Gausman, tonight’s Jays’ starter, with five extra-base hits, including one home run. And Gausman looks pretty hittable so far.
Though only .500 for the year (6-6), the Red Sox have sure made the most of this Boston homestand, haven’t they? An 18-run announcement of the arrival of their offense. Two contract extensions to young linchpins. An extra-innings victory on the first leg of a doubleheader. Roman Anthony chants; we Boston fans are ever-hungry.
Just about the only thing that hasn’t happened to get Boston abuzz about this Red Sox offense is a Duran home run. I’ll take him tonight to wrap one around Pesky’s Pole, or maybe capitalized on Gausman’s reduced fastball velo to push one oppo over the Monster. He caps a week of good vibes off with a pop.
Boston Red Sox ML (-130) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
This is the third game in a four-slate for the Red Sox against their AL East rival from Canada. The Blue Jays just spend most of this week putting a bow on a backloaded $500 million rack for Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.—and, real quick, good for them. Time and time again the Blue Jays have failed to lure massive free agent names to Toronto—a city they so desperately want people to think is cool that their City Edition jerseys are basically an outstanding marketing campaign for the metropolis’s nightlife. But, this time, they had a homegrown one who had every incentive and desire to remain a Blue Jay. And—say what you will about the process and the number—they didn’t let Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. slip away.
They will, however, let this game slip away tonight. It’ll be the only one the Sox win during a homestand that’ll have them departing Fenway 7-7 on Friday. Chris Bassitt takes the mound tomorrow night, and we should be understandably terrified about his electric start to 2024.
The Sox are favored by -1.5 runs on DraftKings, but I’m more comfortable with the ML play here.
