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How is the public betting Luka Doncic’s return to Dallas?

How is the public betting Luka Doncic’s return to Dallas?

Sports Betting Picks NBA DraftKings Network Splits

Published:

By: Alex Hunter

Luka Doncic is making his anticipated return to Dallas tonight after the Mavericks shocked the sports world and traded the superstar to the Lakers in February. Unsurprisingly, Doncic is a very popular player to bet on Wednesday. Notably, Doncic occupies three of the top-six most-bet player props on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday and below, I analyze these wagers.

Doncic to record a Triple-Double (+275)

Doncic to score 30+ Points (-175)

Doncic O 16.5 Rebounds + Assists (-125)

First off, Doncic for a triple-double is the most-bet player prop of the night, which is a product of Doncic notching a triple-double of 19 points, 15 rebounds and 12 assists when he faced the Mavericks for the first time following the trade on Feb. 25th in Los Angeles. While the +275 price for this bet is very appealing, these odds are long for a reason. Doncic has only recorded two triple-doubles in his 25 starts as a Laker and the guard is playing his second game in two nights on Wednesday. So, while this is a fun bet to peruse given tonight’s narrative that Doncic will be out for revenge, the guard for a triple-double isn’t a sharp selection.

The second-most bet player prop on Doncic is for him to score 30+ points at -175. While more realistic, this also isn’t a great wager at these heavily favored odds. Doncic is averaging 27.1 PPG as a Laker, which is a whole point less than his average with the Mavericks this season. Doncic has scored under 30 points in five of his last seven starts and when he faced Dallas back in February, the Mavericks held him to a 6-for-17 shooting performance for only 19 points. Furthermore, Rui Hachimura (knee) will be back for the Lakers tonight and in the 13 starts Doncic has made alongside LeBron James and Hachimura, Doncic is averaging 26.2 PPG.

Lastly, Doncic for over 16.5 rebounds + assists is the third-most popular selection for the guard and is the bet that has the most merit. Since the All-Star break, Doncic is averaging right at this line with 16.3 RA per game and he has exceeded 16.5 RA in 11 of his 24 starts.

Alex Hunter
Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player and sports handicapper, who has been a proud member of the DraftKings Network team since 2020. He is a data-driven analyst, who earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has been in the sports content business for nearly a decade, covering the NBA, NFL and PGA TOUR. Alex is a diehard Boston Celtics fan, who loves to be on the golf course when he isn’t grinding lineups or producing content. For all of Alex’s work or if you need any lineup advice, be sure to follow him @Hunta512 on X.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.