With just four games left in the Detroit Pistons’ remarkable 2024-25 season, they have already sewn up a spot in the playoffs, and they know they’ll be a road team in the first round. Only the Pistons’ first-round opponent is yet to be determined; they’re one game behind the Milwaukee Bucks for fifth in the Eastern Conference, with the top four virtually already set: the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, and Indiana Pacers, in that order.
Barring some spectacular collapse by the Knicks, Detroit will face New York if it finishes sixth and Indiana if it finishes fifth. Since January 1, it’s been arguably the third-best team in the conference, posting a plus-6.0 net rating and a 29-17 record, but the Pacers haven’t been far behind — 31-13 with a plus-5.8 net rating. The Knicks have been the worst of the bunch, with a plus-1.6 net rating, although Milwaukee’s record in 2025 is a game worse than New York’s. The Pistons have gone 2-1 against the Knicks this season and only 1-3 against Indiana.
Detroit can keep up its charge tonight when it faces the Sacramento Kings, who are fighting to lock up a Play-In Tournament spot in the West, at 7 p.m. ET. It promises to be a good big man battle between veteran Domantas Sabonis and youngster Jalen Duren.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Pistons are 6.5-point favorites and the total is set for 230. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Duren.
Best Jalen Duren Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jalen Duren O11.5 Rebounds (+105)
The Kings have been known for one thing this season — elite rebounding. Sacramento already had the league’s best rebounder prior to the trade deadline in center Domantas Sabonis, who has led the league in the category in each of the past three seasons. Then, it opted to add Sabonis’ countryman, Jonas Valančiūnas, whose career 20.6% total rebounding percentage ranks eighth in NBA history, ahead of even Sabonis. Since Valančiūnas made his Kings debut on February 6, the duo has combined for 19.9 rebounds per game, a figure that would, by itself, account for nearly half of the Dallas Mavericks’ league-worst mark.
Unsurprisingly, with Sabonis and Valančiūnas both on the roster, Sacramento has allowed just 40.6 rebounds per game, the fewest in the league. But in terms of total rebounds grabbed across that span, Detroit actually ranks ahead of the Kings, grabbing 45.5 boards per game to Sacramento’s 43.8. Duren may be no Sabonis, but he ranks third in total rebounding percentage, just two places below Sabonis, and 12th in rebounds per game. He’s also snagged 12 or more boards in three of his last four games, including a 21-point, 18-rebound masterpiece against the Toronto Raptors on Friday.
Jalen Duren First Dunk Scorer (+185)
Last season, the Mavericks made a run to the NBA Finals behind an oversized point guard with incredible playmaking talent and a traditional rim-running big, so if the Pistons are trying to follow Dallas’ blueprint, Cade Cunningham and Duren make pretty good foils for Luka Dončić and Daniel Gafford. Duren’s the ultimate lob threat; his average shot distance of 2.5 feet is the second-shortest in the NBA this season among 237 qualified players, and he’s second in the league in dunks, behind only the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo. 44.9% of Duren’s shot attempts are dunks, while the most prolific King — Sabonis — attempts dunks on just 10% of his tries. Duren’s 15.8% first-quarter usage rate is significantly lower than Sabonis’ 25.2% mark, but not enough to account for the drastic difference in dunk frequency.
Plus, Duren is far more likely to stop Sabonis from making the first dunk than Sabonis is to stop Duren. This season, Detroit has allowed the fourth-fewest restricted-area shots per game and held opponents to the seventh-lowest percentage on such tries. Sacramento has been stingier, allowing the second-fewest, but it’s allowed the seventh-highest percentage. Opponents have shot 2.0 percentage points worse within six feet against the Pistons, the league’s fifth-lowest rate, while they’ve been 0.3 percentage points better against Sacramento. The game’s first dunk might well come on a back-door cut and lob, a play that has been devastating for Detroit this season; of the 42 players who have played at least 60 games and cut to the basket at least once per game, Duren is the ninth-most effective by points per possession.
