The final week of the NBA regular season is here with about four games remaining on each team’s schedule. The Eastern Conference seeding is fairly landlocked while only the top two seeds in the Western Conference, the Thunder and Rockets, have clinched their outlook.
While there will be high competition in this final week of the season, the NBA will. ease into it with just two games taking place tonight. At 7:00 p.m. ET, the Sacramento Kings will be playing in the second half of a back-to-back and facing the Detroit Pistons. A half-hour later, the Philadelphia 76ers will take on the Miami Heat.
There will surely be busier days of basketball with the season winding down. But here are my favorite prop bets for the small Monday NBA slate tonight.
Domantas Sabonis Over 38.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-110)
The Sacramento Kings sit in ninth place in the Western Conference and hold a clear pathway to a play-in tournament opportunity if they take care of business down the stretch. This is despite their best efforts as they have gone 3-7 in their last 10 games and dropped 11 of their past 16. Domantas Sabonis has battled some injuries during this stretch but enters this game having played in each of the last eight games and has returned to his normal self.
On the season overall, Sabonis is averaging 19.2 points, an NBA-best 13.9 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game- or 39.2 combined PRA. Across his past six games, Sabonis is averaging 21.7 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists- or 40.7 PRA and enters tonight having reached this total in four straight games. He also has had success when facing the Pistons, having recorded over 38.5 combined PRA in three of the past four matchups including as many as 60 combined PRA in a game.
Detroit is allowing 41.3 combined PRA to opposing starting centers this season and it is worth noting Jalen Duren is listed as questionable tonight. The Pistons rank 14th in opponents’ points allowed and are 10th in total rebounds recorded. Sacramento needs Sabonis to continue serving as a hub of the offense and this is a matchup he has had success. Look for his veteran savvy and polished post moves to have success against this youthful Detroit team and for the Kings to create plenty of chances from cutters around the big man. He has recorded over 38.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in five of his last six games played and look for him to carry this momentum into this appealing matchup.
Malik Beasley Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (-105)
When talking about the most underappreciated seasons in the NBA this year, Malik Beasley should be front and center of the conversation. Detroit brought in the journeyman shooting guard this offseason as they flipped into win-now mode and he has exceeded all expectations. Beasley is averaging 16.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game. He is launching a career-high 9.3 three-point attempts per game and connecting at a 41.6% rate. This comes out to an average of 3.9 made three-pointers per game and Beasley has connected on over 3.5 perimeter shots in 45 of the 78 games he has played. The 301 made three-pointers that Beasley has already tallied this season is tied for the eighth most perimeter shots of any player in any season in NBA history. Steph Curry (five times), Klay Thompson, Luka Doncic, and Anthony Edwards are the only names ahead of him.
Beasley and the Pistons will face off with the Sacramento Kings tonight who have struggled to defend the perimeter all season. They rank 20th in opponents’ points per game and are dead last in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed with teams shooting 38.3% from beyond the arc against them.
Detroit has already secured their best regular season record since at least the 2015-16 season and will be looking to remain in form ahead of their first playoff appearance since 2018-19. Look for them to continue riding what got them here and for Beasley to capitalize on the open perimeter shots that will be there for him. The 28-year-old has attempted 10 or more three-pointers in four straight games entering this matchup and in seven of the past 10. Count on him to continue receiving this level of volume and capitalize by connecting on at least four long-range shots tonight.
Adem Bona Over 19.5 Points & Rebounds (-135)
In the second matchup of the night’s slate, the Philadelphia 76ers will face off with the Miami Heat. Neither of these teams holds the exact outlook they desire with injuries having never allowed the 76ers to see what the team looks like as designed. They will limp to the finish line of the regular season and hope for some luck in the NBA Draft lottery to build out the roster from there. The injuries and underwhelming outlook have also opened the door for some younger players to fully showcase their abilities with little expectations regarding wins and losses.
Adem Bona has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this and has seen plenty of increased opportunity in recent games. On the season overall, he is averaging just 14.4 minutes per game and producing 5.0 points and 3.9 rebounds. However, he is coming off a career-high 28-point performance on Thursday and is averaging 12.5 points and 8.2 rebounds in 27.5 minutes per game across his last 11 matchups.
Guerschon Yabusele has been ruled out for tonight’s game due to personal reasons which further cuts the depth at the big man position. Count on Adem Bona to lead the charge from both an opportunity and production standpoint. He had 16 points and 10 rebounds against the Heat just over a week again under similar circumstances and should be in line for this same type of performance. Miami ranks 19th in opponents’ rebounds allowed and 14th in opponents’ points in the paint. Look for Bona to be active from start to finish and eclipse 19.5 combined points and rebounds for the fourth time in the past six games and the second time against the Heat in this stretch.
Alec Burks to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+100)
On the other side of the matchup sits Alec Burks who has seemingly had a knack for giving the Sixers fits throughout his career. The journeyman guard has bounced around the league and performed for Miami this year. Across this season with the Heat he is averaging 7.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.1 assists per game. He has logged 17.6 minutes per game and is shooting 41.6% from beyond the three-point arc on 4.1 perimeter shots per game.
Expect his role to grow tonight as both Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are listed as questionable. Burks has slid into the starting lineup across the past seven games and attempted 62 shots across this stretch. 51 of these shots have been beyond the three-point arc and he has connected at a 43.1% rate. He has recorded three or more made three-pointers in four of these seven games and has a favorable matchup against Philadelphia tonight. The Sixers’ defense has struggled all year and they rank dead last in opponents’ three-pointers made and opponents’ three-point percentage since the All-Star break. Philadelphia is the only team to allow opponents to shoot over 40% from the perimeter during this stretch.
Burks is coming off a 6-for-14 three-point performance the last time he was on the floor and also connected with three made three-pointers in the most recent matchup with Philadelphia. Expect his level of opportunity to especially grow if Herro is to miss but there to be enough shot volume regardless. Count on him to take advantage of this vulnerability in Philadelphia’s defense and knock down at least three three-pointers again tonight.
