We start the week fresh with some MLB Prop Bets that I’m liking for this Monday slate of baseball on April 7th. All of these bets will be available on DraftKings Sportsbook if you want to tail along.
We have a lot of weather concerns for tonight, so be sure to check before placing your bets.
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MLB Prop Bets for April 7, 2025
Michael Lorenzen under 17.5 outs recorded +105
First, the Twins’ offense has been total garbage so far. As a team, they’re slashing .198/.266/.315 with a .262 wOBA and a 23% K%. They’ve shown some life, scoring 13 runs in their last two games, but I’m still confident betting the under on their opponents’ outs tonight. Lorenzen got lucky last season, posting a 3.31 ERA despite a 4.59 xERA. His command was spotty too—he finished with a 4.1 BB/9, his worst since 2021.
Even with the Twins’ struggles, I think they’ll do enough to knock Lorenzen out early. He varies his pitches, but the Twins handle two of his three—four-seam and sinker—well. Despite not showing it this year, tonight’s expected lineup has historically been patient. No way Lorenzen survives six innings tonight
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Matt Chapman over 1.5 H/R/RBI +110
Chapman has been hitting the ball really well. He enters today slashing .281/.410/.531 with two home runs, eight RBIs, and five runs scored. Tonight, he’ll face Hunter Greene, who’s been great to start the season. Despite the tough matchup, I like Chapman’s chances against Greene’s fastball-heavy approach. Greene has made two starts and thrown his fastball 59% of the time. Chapman, hitting in the cleanup spot, has a .364 wOBA and a .271 ISO against that pitch since last season. Because of how well Greene’s been pitching, we’re getting almost all the Giants’ players at plus money to go over their H/R/RBI totals. If Chapman doesn’t get a hit off Greene, he’ll have a shot against the Reds’ bullpen, which isn’t overpowering. They lack firepower late in games and rely on contact for outs. I like getting plus money on Chapman in the cleanup spot.
Want to see who is pitching today? Check out our Starting Pitchers article to see today’s matchups.
Logan Gilbert under 1.5 walks +105
Gilbert has been someone who limits walks. Last year, through 208.2 innings, he walked 37 batters, good for a 1.60 BB/9. Through 12 innings this season, he’s issued one free pass, giving him a 0.75 BB/9. I’m taking him to issue under two walks against the Astros, who are a very impatient and aggressive ball club. The Astros have an overall BB% of 8.2%, which ranks them 20th in the league. They also have one of the highest K% rates at 26.8%, which is 4th. Dating back to last season, tonight’s expected lineup has a BB% of just 6.9%. Five players in tonight’s lineup have had a BB% no higher than 5.2% since last year. Unless Gilbert is unusually off with his command tonight, I think he goes under 1.5 walks issued.
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