Major League Baseball has a packed Monday night with 10 games scheduled under the lights. It’s a strong slate of starting pitching options as most teams are starting their third trip through their rotations with many Opening Day starters set to make their third start of the season. From the 20 options taking the bump on Monday night, let’s take a look at some of my top starting pitcher prop bets for Monday, including plays from Luis Severino, Richard Fitts and Logan Webb.
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Here is a look at my top starting pitcher prop bets for this Monday night.
Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Luis Severino under 17.5 outs recorded
Severino signed a three-year deal to be the ace of the Athletics, but I don’t think he’ll get through six full innings on Monday night as his new team opens their series against the Padres.
In each of his two outings this season, Severino has worked exactly 18 outs, but those were matchups against the Mariners and Cubs. The Padres are a tougher test and have allowed opposing starters to record 18 outs just three times in their 10 games this season. As a team, they are hitting .310 against right-handed pitching, the second-highest mark in the MLB this season.
Another thing working against Severino is the environment. Sutter Health Park has been very hitter-friendly so far this season, and Severino gave up six runs and two home runs in his first start at home last week. He still managed to get through six innings, but it was definitely not smooth sailing.
I like the Padres as one of my top MLB stacks for DFS and think their lefty-forward lineup will result in an early exit from this contest for Severino.
Richard Fitts over 3.5 strikeouts (+125)
Fitts will make the second start of the season on Monday night against the visiting Blue Jays. He was originally scheduled for Saturday’s game against St. Louis which was postponed due to rain and made up as part of Sunday’s doubleheader.
In his first start, Fitts took a tough-luck loss allowing three runs in six innings. Two of those runs came on back-to-back solo home runs in his sixth inning of work. He did get over this strikeout prop, though, with four Ks against the Rangers.
Fitts showcased improved velocity this year during spring training and had 14 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings. Last year in Triple-A he also had solid strikeout numbers with 111 punchouts in 116 2/3 innings.
The Blue Jays have hit .246 as a team with a slightly below-average 20.2% strikeout rate this season, but since this strikeout prop is so low, I think Fitts can get over it in his first Fenway start of the year.
Starting Pitcher Race to 3 Strikeouts (Both Pitchers Must Start): Logan Webb over Hunter Greene (+110)
I included Greene as my top bargain starting pitcher and love his upside in San Francisco after two strong starts to begin the season. However, this prop seems skewed to me, and I love getting Webb at plus money to beat him to three strikeouts. It’s fun to include a “quick-hitter” like this in my starting pitcher prop bets for Monday.
Webb is the home team starter, so he’ll get each inning’s opportunities for strikeouts ahead of Greene, which is a significant advantage. He had five strikeouts against the Reds and six strikeouts against the Astros in his two road starts to start the season. Last season, he was more effective at home with a 2.83 ERA, 2.75 FIP and 1.03 WHIP compared to his road numbers of a 4.11 ERA, 3.14 FIP and a 1.43 WHIP. His first home start of the season should help him be even better in this matchup even though he already looked sharp in his first two outings.
The Giants have a slightly higher K% than the Reds so far this season but the difference is minimal. It’s much better to get the home-team advantage and go with Webb at plus money. The Reds offense has struggled overall this season, so Webb should be able to hold them in check at home, and I think he can beat Greene to this number in tonight’s starting pitcher prop bets.
