Major League Baseball has 10 games on the schedule this Monday night as new series get started across the league with the advent of a new work week. There are some fun matchups and plenty of interesting storylines to follow as most teams are about 10 games into the season, and starting to develop some trackable trends and current form. Taking a look at what should be a busy night on the diamonds, I break down my three favorite MLB predictions, picks, and prop bets below.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Jackson Merrill 4+ Total Bases (+285) vs. Oakland Athletics
The Padres start their visit to hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park with a matchup against Luis Severino on Monday. As I highlighted in my MLB stacks for this Monday, it’s a great place to attack Severino, who has struggled with left-handed hitters over the last couple of seasons.
After signing a big contract extension, Merrill is off to a great start to the season, He is 14-for-37 (.378) with two doubles, three home runs, a .297 ISO and a .497 xwOBA. He’s crushing the ball with a 93.1 average exit velocity, per Statcast, and a 22.6% barrel rate.
Jackson Merrill’s third HR of the season cuts the deficit. pic.twitter.com/kskidfN42k
— MLB (@MLB) April 6, 2025
Merrill could either smash a home run and pick up this prop all at once or spread it around to multiple hits, giving him several paths to success. I think the Padres will pile up runs, so I like their alternate team total over 5.5 at +150 along with Merrill to get at least four total bases as some of my top MLB predictions today.
Total Runs under 6 (-110) Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field is an awesome place to watch baseball, but it might be best to watch this game from the comfort of your couch on Monday night. The gametime temp is expected to be 32 degrees with snow flurries and sustained winds of 20 mph gusting up to 35 mph.
The wind is expected to be blowing in and it’s going to be a very tough environment for hitters. As a result, this line is low, but taking the under is still one of my top MLB predictions today.
In addition, the two pitchers on the mound have both been sharp this season. Nathan Eovaldi has given up just two runs on seven hits in 15 innings across his two starts this year, including spinning a complete-game shutout in his last start in Cincinnati. Justin Steele hasn’t been quite as prolific but has won each of his last two starts and done a good job limiting damage overall.
The Rangers have already been under this run line in three of their last seven games even without the weather factor and the Cubs have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last four. The MLB could postpone this game, but if it does happen on Monday, it shapes up to be a very low-scoring affair.
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+164) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Dbacks are 5-5 after dropping two of three to the Nationals before heading home to start this three-game set against the visiting Orioles. They’ll give the ball to Opening Day starter Zac Gallen as they face Zach Eflin of the Orioles. In this Zac on Zach matchup, this Zach (the author) is going with Gallen and the Snakes to get the win at home and cover the run line to boost the odds from -125 on the moneyline to +164 by giving the 1.5 runs.
Gallen had two very different results in his two starts this season. he was shelled for four runs on four hits with four walks in just one inning on Opening Day against the Cubs. He looked totally different on the road last Wednesday against the Yankees in the Bronx. He allowed just three hits in 6 2/3 shutout innings while racking up 13 strikeouts and not walking anyone. He was solid in spring training, so I’m ready to give the ace a mulligan on his start against the Cubs.
Eflin has been solid but not spectacular in his two starts, giving up five runs in 12 innings and surrendering a total of 10 hits including a pair of home runs against the Blue Jays and Red Sox.
The Diamondbacks have hit right-handed pitching very well this season, and the Orioles lost two of three in their home series against the Red Sox and their road series against the Royals over the last week.
If Gallen can continue the O’s offensive struggles and look like he did against the Yankees, he gives the Snakes a good shot to get the win in their return to Chase Field on Monday night.
According to the betting splits page on DK Network, the Dbacks are getting 70% of the handle at -1.5 and 46% of the bets, meaning the bigger bets are coming in on them to win by multiple runs.
