The San Francisco Giants are one of the surprises of the young season. The Cincinnati Reds are not.
Facing off in an Opening Week series, the Giants won 2-1, and things have polarized more. San Francisco has won all six contests since leaving Great American Ballpark; Cincinnati is 2-5 since. One team is hitting, pitching, and playing good defense. One struggles with all three.
Will this be a night for the Reds to right the ship? Or will San Francisco improve on their league-leading 8-1 record?
On DraftKings Sportsbook, San Francisco is the home favorite at -166, and the run total is set at 6.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bet for this contest.
Best Giants Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Logan Webb Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (-105) and Under 1.5 Runs Allowed (+110)
Opening Day was an uncharacteristic struggle for Webb. The Giants star allowed nine baserunners and three earned runs against this weak lineup and lost control of his changeup, a key out pitch. That was followed by a bounce-back in Houston to the tune of seven one-run innings.
I think he will look more like his ace self back at home, and the numbers should come back to average for these Reds hitters. One of them poses a real threat (more on him later), but 5 of their 9 hitters in tonight’s lineup are batting below .200. Few have real career success against Webb. This all adds up to another lengthy shutdown outing under Logan’s belt.
Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120)
Harsh, right? But that’s how I would describe the results at the plate for San Francisco’s young catcher.
He makes the majority of his value in the squat. A Gold Glover last year in his first season as a starter, Bailey’s .637 left plenty to be desired. A 4-for-24 start at the dish this year doesn’t inspire confidence in a breakout. He’s looking lost at the plate more often than not.
Though he’s not alone, Bailey has had nothing for Reds ace Hunter Greene in his young career. The backstop is 0-for-7 so far with 6 strikeouts and punched out in both trips to the plate on Opening Day with Greene on the mound. I’m banking on the struggles to continue today.
Best Reds Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Hunter Greene Under 17.5 Outs Recorded and Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Earlier today, I outlined why I like these two plays on Cincinnati’s ace. To learn the why, check out this article first.
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100)
If anyone can do damage off of Logan Webb, it’s this guy.
On Opening Day in Cincinnati, the Reds’ star was 1-for-2 against Webb with a single, a walk, and two runs scored. I do expect the majority of this feeble Reds lineup to struggle tonight, so Elly might have to do a lot of the work by himself. This hasn’t been a problem to date; Elly has 10 runs batted in and 7 runs scored already. Both marks lead this team in the young season.
It helps that he has a 4-for-12 mark against Webb in his young career. He’s posted strong career exit velocity numbers against a pitcher who thrives on soft contact. It may be a dire night for this Reds lineup, but not for the young phenom.
