DraftKings’ main slate for Sunday starts at 6:00 PM EST and includes eight games. Below, I dive into three of my favorite DFS options to consider for tonight’s NBA action.
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C, Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers, $12,600
The Nuggets have lost three in a row and if they keep losing, Denver could find themselves competing in the Play-In Tournament next week. With the Western Conference such a tight race, Denver has the potential to finish the season as high as the No.3 seed or as low as the No.8 seed. All in all, tonight is a must-win for the Nuggets and regardless if Jamal Murray (questionable, hamstring) suits up or not, Jokic is the No.1 option on the board and worth paying up for.
The center has scored at least 62 FPTS in four straight games and he will be at home tonight, where Jokic is amassing a whopping 68.8 FPTS per game this season. Averaging a triple-double, Jokic is leading the NBA with a jaw dropping 1.9 FPTS per minute this season and this is a beautiful spot for him vs. the Pacers. This season, Indiana ranks eighth in pace and they are giving up the fifth-most points in the paint, which is obviously perfect for a dominating center like Jokic. This game’s total is the second-highest on the slate at 240.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook and when competing at home and in a total of at least 240 points this season, Jokic has been brilliant with 71.9 FPTS per game (three games).
PF/C, Obi Toppin, Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets, $4,300
With Pascal Siakam (elbow) out, Toppin is the best value on the slate. Siakam has only missed one game this season and in that contest, Toppin started in place of Siakam and erupted for 57.5 FPTS vs. the Timberwolves. This game went to overtime, but before the extra period, Toppin led Indiana with 39 minutes in regulation and he garnered a 21% usage rate. Toppin is scoring 1.0 FPTS per minute with Siakam off the court this season and Toppin is shooting a strong 54% from the field since the All-Star break.
Toppin should start and see over 30 minutes tonight in a great spot vs. the Nuggets. Denver ranks seventh in pace and 20th in defensive rating this season, and as noted above, this game carries the second-highest total on the slate at 240.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. In this likely shootout, Toppin should score nothing less than 30 FPTS.
PG/SG, Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, $7,400
Castle has been running away with the Rookie of the Year award recently. In his last two starts, Castle has scored 49.25 FPTS vs. the Nuggets and 52.25 FPTS vs. the Cavaliers. The UConn product is now a -1400 favorite to win Rookie of the Year on DraftKings Sportsbook and Castle’s impressive play should continue tonight against the Trail Blazers. The guard’s success in his last two games has been a product of Victor Wembanyama (shoulder), De’Aaron Fox (finger) and Jeremy Sochan (back) being out, which will be the case again Sunday.
With Wembanyama, Fox and Sochan off the floor since the All-Star break, Castle is leading the Spurs with a 30.9% usage rate, a 29% assist percentage and 1.2 FPTS per minute. The rookie is way underpriced for his role as the Spurs’ featured player and Castle should exceed five-times value with ease tonight.