The final week of the NBA regular season has arrived. Next Sunday will mark the finale in which all 30 teams will play to conclude the regular season. On today’s slate, 11 games of action will take place across the day to launch us into the final week.
Starting in the early afternoon, the Chicago Bulls will play the Charlotte Hornets with tip-off set for 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, at 3:30 p.m. ET, the Lakers will play the Thunder and the Nets will host the Raptors. Four games will be tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET. This includes the Cavaliers playing the Kings, the Celtics hosting the Wizards, the Hawks taking on the Jazz, and the Spurs matching up with the Trail Blazers.
An hour later, the Phoenix Suns will play the New York Knicks with Jalen Brunson expected to make his return after missing the previous 15 games due to an ankle injury. Then at 8:00 p.m. ET, the Indiana Pacers will play the Denver Nuggets. There is a double-header of games at 8:30 p.m. ET to conclude the night between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets as well as the New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks.
Keep a close eye on the injury reports as the grind of the season has taken a toll around the league. With plenty of NBA action ahead, here are my favorite prop bets for Sunday’s busy slate.
Deni Avdija Over 35.5 Points & Rebounds (-105)
EDITORS NOTE: Deni Avdija has been ruled out for tonight’s game with a thumb injury.
Deni Avdija is having one of the best closing stretches of the season of any player in the NBA. The Trail Blazers forward has taken his game to new heights and continually improved throughout the year. On the season overall, Avdija is averaging 16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. Since the All-Star break, he has produced 23.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. Over the past 13 games, his output has grown to 26.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 5.5 assists.
He has scored 32+ points in three of his past four games and is attempting 22.8 field goal attempts per game across these matchups. This is the fourth most field goal attempts of any player in the NBA during this stretch. Avdija and the Trail Blazers will now prepare to face the San Antonio Spurs. While San Antonio is moving in the right direction as a franchise, their outlook shifted greatly following the injuries to Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox. They are limping to the finish line this year with these injuries having changed things. Since February 21st, the Spurs rank 28th in opponents’ points allowed and 27th in opponents’ rebounds conceded. They have lost six of their last seven games giving up a concerning 121.6 points per game during this stretch.
This matchup creates a great chance for Avdija to continue his strong stretch of play. The 24-year-old has tallied over 35.5 combined points and rebounds in four straight games and eight of his past 13. Expect him to continue cementing his outlook as a key part of this Trail Blazers future and impose himself with his play tonight. Look for him to be active on the boards and lead the fast break on his way to recording over 35.5 combined points and rebounds again tonight.
Jalen Brunson Over 5.5 Assists (-110)
After missing the previous 15 games due to his sprained ankle, Jalen Brunson is expected to return to the floor today. New York has remained afloat without the All-Star guard going 9-6 in this stretch. But they will not reach their peak as a team without Brunson on the floor and his shot creation has been missing in the flow of offense.
On the season overall, Brunson is averaging 26.3 points, 7.4 assists, and 3.0 rebounds per game. He has recorded over 5.5 assists in 44 of the 61 games that he has played this season. Brunson will likely be on a bit of a minutes limit, but 5.5 is a low enough bar that he should have no trouble clearing this.
The Knicks will face off with the Phoenix Suns tonight who have looked far too disconnected on the defensive end. On the season overall, they rank 23rd in opponents points per game and 21st in assists allowed. Brunson tallied 10 assists in the first matchup against the Suns this season and Phoenix’s outlook has worsened since this time. Brunson will need to settle in as a scorer as well but expect his ability to run the offense to be a welcomed change today and for him to get his legs settled as a playmaker. He is more than capable of dominating the game as a passer even if he is on a minutes limit, and Tom Thibodeau has been known to look the other way on these types of restrictions. Count on Brunson to assert himself in this game and record over 5.5 assists for the 45th time this season.
Bradley Beal Under 15.5 Points (-115)
On the other side of the matchup, things have gone from bad to worse for the Phoenix Suns. Desperation has kicked in with the team two games out of the final play-in spot and the postseason looking unlikely. While he has not been the only problem with this Suns team, Bradley Beal sure has not been a part of the solution. Leading the conversation for the worst contract in the NBA, Beal has failed to live up to the lofty standards the contract commands.
On the season overall, Beal is averaging 17.0 points per game which is his lowest scoring output since 2014-15. He has looked increasingly disinterested in scoring as the season progressed with this on full display with his one-point performance on 0-for-7 shooting from the field in the previous game. The Knicks’ defense will not make life much easier and the team will have a jolt of life from the return of Brunson.
Beal’s one-point performance came after his return from an eight-game absence due to a hamstring injury. Whether he is not back to 100% or just struggling, his performance level is concerning. Beal has been held to under 15.5 points in 22 of the 49 games this season and five of his past eight. Look for these struggles to continue and for the outlook to worsen for the Suns with Beal failing to record over 15.5 points again tonight.
Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120)
There are plenty of exciting teams and storylines in the Western Conference, but the Houston Rockets have continued to handle their business and sit in second place in the conference. Alperen Sengun is a major X-factor for the team and has been playing at a high level of late. Houston handed the big man a massive extension in the offseason and he has followed this up by averaging 19.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game this season.
The Rockets will take on the Golden State Warriors tonight who have been on an absolute tear since the addition of Jimmy Butler. They are 21-4 in games that Butler has played and have built some momentum heading into the postseason. However, rebounding is among their biggest concerns. No player on the Warriors roster averages more than 6.2 rebounds individually and, as a team, the Warriors rank 15th in opponents’ rebounds allowed.
Sengun is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game and has recorded over 9.5 rebounds in 46 of the 74 games he has played. This includes eight of his past 12. These two teams have faced off four times already this season with Sengun averaging 10.5 rebounds per game during these matchups. Look for him to impose himself on the boards again tonight and record double-digit rebounds in tonight’s matchup.
