The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the historic intermediate track in Darlington, South Carolina, on Sunday. Known as “The Lady in Black,” this isn’t your typical intermediate track—it’s “The Track Too Tough to Tame.” Any course with two nicknames stands out as unique and demands a tailored strategy. As always, rely on the data, but don’t overlook what you see with your own eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Goodyear 400 at Darlington.
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Race Winner — Goodyear 400
Ryan Preece +2200
This is a long shot on Sunday, but by the end of the season, it might be a different story. Preece’s RFK debut has gone about as well as possible. Toss out the first three races—two superspeedway events and a road course aren’t great indicators of speed. Preece finished 15th at Phoenix, then followed with three consecutive top-10 finishes (Las Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville).
Those aren’t wins, nor are his four top-20 finishes in his last five Darlington races. Crawl before you walk, though. Preece crawled in JTG Daugherty equipment and in an SHR Ford built by a shop that was closing down, yet he still managed surprising top-20 results. RFK won this race last spring, with both of their cars in contention until the end. Typically, Preece doesn’t practice well but races much better. He loved his car on Saturday, and he was one of the fastest in practice, qualifying second.
Race Winner — Goodyear 400
Kyle Larson +450
It’s “The Lady in Black” versus the best racer on the planet. This is NASCAR’s version of Dancing with the Stars—a tango at “The Track Too Tough to Tame.” The Lady usually wins, but that’s racing. The fastest car doesn’t always take the checkered flag, but make no mistake—Larson is the fastest. Bet on speed, not luck.
Larson won the 2023 Southern 500 at Darlington. He should have won the follow-up in 2024, but a late-race caution cost him the victory. In 2022, he earned two runner-up finishes at Darlington. This egg-shaped oval demands running an inch from the wall, and no one performs this delicate dance better than Yung Money. Fast laps and laps led don’t pay—only wins do—but no one wins by running safe laps. The winner needs courage. The winner must be reckless. That’s Larson.
