First Wednesday baseball of the year! You know what that means: early first-pitches, a smattering of afternoon games for all our day/night split zealots, and a bit more limited evening primetime action on the diamond. Many of the games have first pitch in several hours, so I focused on the limited slate of MLB games in the later games. I break down my three favorite MLB predictions, picks, and prop bets below.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Tyler Soderstrom to hit HR (+500) vs. Colorado Rockies
Tyler Soderstrom is primed to smash one out of the park against rookie Chase Dollander today. With three home runs already on the season and an ISO of .306, Soderstrom’s power at the plate is inevitable. His 81st-percentile hard-hit rate, as well as his current north-of-1.000 OPS, are both a solid indicator of his ability to get on base and hit for extra bases. He’s been doing that. And he’s been clearing the fences, as mentioned above.
Now, consider the challenge Dollander faces. In his early career, Dollander has been prone to giving up the long ball, with a 1.20 HR/9 rate. This aligns with a 4.20 FIP, showing his struggles in maintaining control and limiting damage when the ball’s put in play. Dollander’s command issues have led to him allowing hard-hit balls and extra-base damage, something Soderstrom thrives on.
Even though Dollander’s sample size is limited, the trend shows a rookie pitcher with significant room for growth but also notable susceptibility to the deep ball. Soderstrom’s aggressive approach (only a 5.3% walk rate so far) and power swing against pitchers with control issues make him an ideal candidate to go yard in this matchup.
With his form, Dollander’s lack of experience at the major league level, and Soderstrom’s consistent power, this matchup screams value for a Soderstrom home run.
Julio Rodriguez to hit HR (+600) vs. San Francisco Giants
Here’s what you need to know about how J-Rod is swinging the bat to start out a bounce-back campaign. All stats from his current 2025 plate appearances.
- Avg. Exit Velocity: 94.8 mph (90th percentile)
- Hard Hit %age: 61.3% (93rd percentile)
- Swing Speed: 75.8 (93rd percentile)
He’s swinging the bat with force of purpose, undeniably, to begin this season. And he already cleared the right field wall with an oppo home run earlier in this series.
Jordan Hicks is consistently prone to the long ball, with a 1.24 HR/9 rate in 2025 and a career total of 79 home runs allowed in 417.1 innings. His high-velocity fastball often catches too much of the plate, leading to power hitters taking advantage. Despite his electric stuff, Hicks struggles with command, posting a 4.15 FIP in 2025, and allowing too many mistake pitches. Right-handed power bats especially feast on his inconsistency. With hitters like Julio Rodríguez, poised to punish any fastball left over the middle, Hicks is a prime target for a home run.
Boston Red Sox ML (-125) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Sox offense is firing on all cylinders after hanging double-digits on the red birds for Fenway’s Opening Day. With many projections putting the team total at 5.3 runs, I’m all over this bet. Miles Mikolas takes the mound for St. Louis, and while his season debut wasn’t terrible, he’s entering a lion’s den in Fenway. Mikolas might’ve held the Angels to just two earned runs in his first outing, but those 20% groundball numbers are alarming against a lineup as deep and aggressive as Boston’s.
Last season, Mikolas struggled with hard contact, landing in the bottom 20% of the league in hard-hit rate, and this season, his sinker-slider combo isn’t likely to be enough to silence a Red Sox squad ranked sixth in hard-hit rate. Even with Devers not yet fully locked in, Boston’s lineup is stacked—up to four hitters are batting over .300 against breaking balls this season. Mikolas just doesn’t have the stuff to navigate this kind of firepower for long. With the Red Sox poised to exploit his weaknesses, expect them to run up the score and cruise to a big win tonight.
