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How Houston beat Duke: Breaking down Sunday’s stunning Final Four upset

How Houston beat Duke: Breaking down Sunday’s stunning Final Four upset

Updated:

By: Sean Barnard

After a tame start to the NCAA Tournament, the Final Four lived up to the hype with a historic come-from-behind victory in which Houston outscored Duke 11-1 in the final 1:26 to produce the victory. Despite Duke holding a 66-59 victory before this stretch, Houston secured the 70-67 victory.

Duke had climbed to holding a 97.1% chance of winning before this collapse. They finished the game with a higher field goal percentage, more free throw attempts, fewer turnovers, more assists, and more steals. Before last night teams were 335-0 in the NCAA Tournament when leading in these categories and Duke also was a perfect 79-0 under Jon Scheyer when leading by 10+ points during a game.

One DraftKings Sportsbook user took advantage of the incoming meltdown by risking $100 on Houston Moneyline. This bet was placed at 11:35 p.m. ET, right before the game turned on its head with the fifth-largest comeback in Final Four history occurring. The user walked away with $4,000 in profit as a result.

Duke made just two field goals over the final 13 minutes and none in the final three minutes of play.

While there was no doubt about the talent level of Duke, the experience of Houston proved valuable. With more experience and a clear culture of the program on display, the Cougars never quit and Duke’s offense fully stalled. Sion James turned over an inbounds pass with 30 seconds remaining which was converted to two points and cut the lead to one. J’Wan Roberts knocked down two free throws with 19.6 seconds remaining to give Houston their first lead since it was 6-5 in the game and they did not look back. LJ Cryer led the team with 26 points and will now have a chance at his second National Championship after winning with Baylor in 2021.

Houston is now set to play in their third NCAA Tournament Championship and will be in search of their first championship victory. They will take on Florida who defeated Aubrun 79-73 in the first Final Four matchup. The Gators have been to the NCAA Final three times in program history and have two National Championships to their name.

Florida opens up as a narrow -115 favorite on the Moneyline of DraftKings Sportsbook. Houston currently holds -105 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 141.5.


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Sean Barnard is a Philadelphia-based writer with experience in the sports media and the betting space since 2020. He has a particular focus on the NBA, but covers a wide range that includes the NFL, WNBA, college basketball, and the MLB. Sean started working for DraftKings Network in 2024. Prior to this you can read his work at ClutchPoints, Philly Sports Network, and Heavy Sports. He also is still active in the Philadelphia Sports Radio scene and is a writer for Crossing Broad.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.