Last night, the Golden State Warriors made a statement against a team they may well face in the first round of the playoffs, notching a 123-116 win over the Los Angeles Lakers, with Stephen Curry scoring 37 points and even Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green knocking down three-pointers. It was another classic battle between Curry and LeBron James, and while James was solid too, the Lakers’ loss dropped them to the fourth seed in the West, in position to face the fifth-seeded Warriors in the first round.
Tonight, Golden State will get another possible playoff preview against the Denver Nuggets, who jumped Los Angeles for third. The third and eighth seeds in the Western Conference are separated by just two and a half games, so it’s still unclear who the Warriors will face. But a 4-5 Denver-Golden State series seems like a distinct possibility.
It’s possible that there could be a few late injury scratches tonight, especially on the Warriors’ side, given that they’re on the second night of a back-to-back. Curry will occasionally sit one end of a back-to-back, but Green and Butler have played more consistently. Nikola Jokić is also a name to watch, after he sat out the Nuggets’ game on Wednesday against the San Antonio Spurs.
Golden State is a one-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-118 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 236. Meanwhile, Denver is -102 on the Moneyline.
Draymond Green O2.5 Steals + Blocks (-120)
Green has been advocating for himself to win his second career Defensive Player of the Year award this season, and, to be fair, the advanced numbers support it. If I had a vote, it’d go to the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Evan Mobley, with Green in second — but to be fair, he’s the main reason why the Warriors have had the league’s third-best defensive rating since Butler’s debut on February 8. He’s played all 25 games in that span, averaged 2.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game, although Golden State is only 0.9 points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the court than off. He ranks just 26th in defensive win shares and fourth in defensive box plus-minus this season.
But the Nuggets just aren’t that good. Of all of the West’s top six seeds, they have the second-worst record against teams above .500, going just 14-19 against fellow playoff teams. That’s a concern, as is a defense that has been the league’s 11th-worst this season. As long as Jokić suits up, they have the best player in the world, but even he hasn’t been able to stop opponents from putting up gaudy counting stats against a team that plays at the fifth-fastest pace. Even though Denver has the league’s fourth-ranked offense, opponents have put up the ninth-most steals and 11th-most blocks per game.
Nikola Jokić U50.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
I am extremely hesitant to go against Jokić three nights after he recorded the most points in a triple-double in NBA history, when he posted a mind-boggling 61 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in 53 minutes of a 140-139 double-overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. But, after sitting out the second night of the back-to-back, he’ll now be playing on two nights’ rest, which is surprisingly his worst rest split. Jokić has been an absolute killer on back-to-backs, averaging a ludicrous 57.2 P/R/A in such situations, but on two nights’ rest, he’s put up a more modest 48.3 P/R/A. On its own, it’s a small sample size — seven games — but that’s 10% of the NBA season to this point, and for his career (a 106-game sample), he’s also put up his smallest statistical output on that rest split.
Plus, the Warriors’ defensive brilliance since acquiring Butler has gone on for too long for me to ignore. Since the trade deadline, Golden State has allowed the fourth-fewest points, sixth-fewest rebounds, and fifth-fewest assists. The Warriors have even been elite against opposing bigs despite their only seven-footer being Quentin Post, who plays just 16 minutes per game; Golden State has allowed the fourth-fewest points in the paint and the fourth-fewest second-chance points with Butler on the roster. Of the 199 players who have played at least 20 games since the trade deadline and defend at least two such shots per game, five Warriors — including Curry — are among the 50 players who hold opponents to the lowest field goal percentage. Jokić attempts 64% of his shots from within 10 feet.
Moses Moody U11.5 Points (-110)
The 14th overall pick in the 2021 draft has started to come into his own in the 2024-25 season, becoming a regular starter for the first time in his career and averaging a career-high 10.1 points per game while 37.7% from beyond the arc. Since entering the starting lineup for good on February 13, he’s put up 12.1 points per game on 46-38-91 shooting splits, hitting the 20-point threshold four times and scoring 12 or more points in 10 of the 22 games. In theory, that should make him a good candidate to put up a good game against the Nuggets’ poor defense, especially since he’ll likely be guarded by either Jamal Murray or Christian Braun, both of whom are below-average on that side of the ball.
However, Moody will always be compared to Jonathan Kuminga, the man picked seven slots ahead of him, both by Golden State’s front office and by NBA fans in general. He really broke out when Kuminga missed more than two months with an ankle sprain, but now that Kuminga is back and seemingly fully healthy, he’s once again become the junior partner. Between his entry into the starting lineup and Kuminga’s injury return, Moody averaged 29.0 minutes, 12.3 points per game, and a 14.5% usage rate. On aggregate, his usage rate has increased and his output has stayed steady, but his game-to-game role in the offense has become more inconsistent with Kuminga back, as he’s posted five games with fewer than 10 points after recording just two in his first 11 games as a starter.
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