We’ve reached San Antonio, and in an NCAA Tournament that’s lacked the usual amount of upsets, the reward is a Final Four that undoubtably features the four best teams in the country. Let’s break down some best bets and predictions for the Final Four.
Make sure you’re keeping your eyes on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits when doing your research, available for free on DK Network.
You can also follow along to get some of my college basketball picks earlier, along with other DK Network analysts, by joining the DKN Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook. Just click here to join for free if you haven’t already.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
Florida vs. Auburn
There’s not much we can look at on paper that’s going to sway you one way or another in this game. Both teams have a top-three offense. Both teams have a top-10 defense. Both teams have been tested against elite and equal competition all season, with the Tigers winning the SEC regular season, and the Gators winning the SEC Tournament. These are two fantastic, talented and deep teams. That said, both have also made silly mistakes throughout the tournament that have held them back at times.
Florida has clearly played with fire the most, needing late game heroics to get past UConn and Texas Tech. But even Auburn was down nine points to Michigan with about 12 minutes to go, and never really was able to pull away from Michigan State in the Elite Eight. What the Tigers do have working in their favor in this game is revenge — Florida went into Auburn in February and won outright as a 9.5-point underdog.
I’m curious to how we see both coaches adjust in this game, as the matchup back in February wasn’t much of a mismatch. Johni Broome had a good game with 18 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. While Chad Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones played poorly, their teammates picked them up. Miles Kelly and Tahaad Pettiford combined for 36 points.
The rebounding margin was dead even in that game, Florida actually turned the ball over four more times than Auburn, and the Tigers took six more field goal attempts. So how did the Gators escape with a nine-point victory? They shot 13-of-33 from downtown (39.4%) and 15-of-18 from the free throw line (83.3%). Auburn shot just 7-for-22 from deep (31.8%) and 14-for-23 from the stripe (60.9%).
Here are the two reasons I’m picking Florida to advance in the Final Four. The first is that the Gators have the experience and depth to keep Broome from dominating the game. Again, Broome was good the first time they played, and he was spectacular on Sunday against Sparty. MSU didn’t have an answer for him in that game, but Florida’s front court is bigger and better, and I’m sure they’ll be forcing Broome to use his injured arm early in this one. If you watched the end of the Elite Eight, Broome was essentially not using that injured elbow, and if the physicality of this game becomes an issue at all, that would be a huge blow to Auburn’s chances.
Second, as good as Auburn’s guards have been, I’ll take Florida’s trio over anyone in the country. Alijah Martin, Will Richard, and specifically Walter Clayton Jr., who’s just about as clutch as they come. If it’s a close one, like we expect it to be, you want Clayton on your side.
Final Four Pick: Florida ML (-145) 1.5-units
Houston vs. Duke
This is either a really tough game to figure out, or an easy one. That’ll all depend on what we get from Houston. Duke has been steamrolling the competition to this point, and is a clear favorite to win it all. That said, last weekend’s victories weren’t exactly against elite defenses in Arizona and Alabama. Houston is going to give Duke as tough a time on defense as anyone it’s seen this season, but you can also make the case that’s the same for Houston on offense.
On one hand, getting 5.5 with Houston looks too good to be true. The Cougars haven’t lost by more than five points this season — and those five point losses came to Auburn and Alabama. Since the calendar flipped to December, Houston has lost just once — by a single point in overtime to Texas Tech. This team just doesn’t go out there and get it handed to them. Metrics like KenPom have this a two-point game, and Haslametrics even has Duke’s edge at less than a point.
On the other hand, the Blue Devils pass the eye test in every which way. They have big guards that can all shoot the lights out. They have multiple NBA-size bigs that protect the rim and finish easy buckets. Oh, and they have Cooper Flagg. Duke just always seems to find a way to get a good shot no matter who the opponent is, and the big question is if Houston can change that?
The points are tempting, but I ultimately believe Duke wins the game. As somebody with a pocket full of Houston futures, I’ll have to take some Duke moneyline. But if you’re entering this game from a neutral standpoint, I’d consider waiting for something live in the game.
As for the total, I do have a strong lean to the under in this one. There’s only one way Houston can win the game, and it’s by playing defense and shortening the amount of possessions. While Duke certainly showed it can get out and run against Arizona and Alabama, it can also win in grinders — and chose to make it a grinder late against ‘Bama. Duke can beat you any way that you want to play, which is scary, but I have to image the Blue Devils know that, and if Houston wants to dictate pace, they’ll let the Cougars do that.
Per usual, i’ll update on Twitter with anything I play here.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Apple or Google!
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
