This Saturday, April 5, the UFC is hosting another Fight Night from its home base, the UFC Apex. In the main event, No. 8 Josh Emmett will face No. 10 Lerone Murphy. Can Murphy’s undefeated streak continue, or does Emmett have another highlight performance in him?
Along with traditional sports betting and daily fantasy, you can now have more action than ever for UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy! Check out DraftKings UFC Pick6! Here are my five favorite picks for Emmett vs. Murphy.
Lerone Murphy More Than 2.5 Takedowns
Murphy is a good striker, but he has the most significant advantage in this contest on the ground. Emmett likes to strike with his opponents and tries to close the distance with power combinations. But Murphy averages 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands those attempts at a 54 percent rate.
Murphy has totaled three or more takedowns in his previous three fights. Emmett has a 46 percent takedown defensive rate and has been taken down in the past. With a three-inch edge in reach and height, Murphy has the tools to dominate this bout on the mat.
Joanderson Brito More Than 0.5 Takedowns
Brito is fighting Pat Sabatini in the co-main event. Brito is the more advanced striker on the feet, but both fighters find much success on the ground. Sabatini lands 0.89 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Brito lands takedowns at an absurd 68 percent rate, 24 percent better than Sabatini.
In this last fight, Brito finished with three takedowns against William Gomis. Brito has also totaled one or more takedowns in his previous five contests. In this bout, Brito needs to be aggressive, and if he does so, a submission could be possible.
Ode Osbourne Less Than 50.5 Significant Strikes
Throughout his UFC career, Osbourne has shown promise but has struggled lately. Osbourne has lost three straight fights and four of his last five. It was surprising to see his total of significant strikes set at 50.5 since he hasn’t hit that mark in his previous five bouts.
Osbourne has recorded 0, 4, and 15 significant strikes in three of his previous five fights. He faces Luis Gurule on Saturday, who is 10-0 in his career. Although Osbourne will have the advantages on paper, it will be hard to back him until he proves he can achieve a complete, above-average performance.
Diana Belbita More Than 40.5 Significant Strikes
Even though Diana Belbita is a +650 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook against Dione Barbosa, she matches up well with her. Belbita has a two-inch larger reach while being one inch taller.
Belbita averages 6.54 significant strikes per 15 minutes, 4.69 more than Barbosa. Even on the ground, where Barbosa excels, Belbita has a 65 percent takedown defense. If Belbita’s plan entering this bout is to fight Barbosa the majority of the time on the feet, she has a good chance to find success.
Brad Tavares More Than 50.5 Significant Strikes
After losing four of his previous five fights, Brad Tavares is in a must-win situation against Gerald Meerschaert. Tavares is a better striker in this matchup, landing 3.43 significant strikes per minute.
Even though Tavares has failed to get in the win column lately, he has totaled 51 or more significant strikes in two of his last three fights and three of five. Tavares has an incredible 80 percent takedown defense, which will be needed in this matchup as Meerschaert is active on the ground. If Tavares makes this a standup bout, another positive striking performance should be in his future.
Loma Lookboonmee More Than 87.5 Fantasy Points
Loma Lookboonmee is facing Istela Nunes in a women’s strawweight bout. Although Lookboonmee is fighting a more prominent opponent, she has a much more advanced skill set.
Lookboonmee averages 1.90 takedowns at a 50 percent rate per 15 minutes. On the feet, Lookboonmee averages over four significant strikes per minute. With such a well-versed arsenal, Lookboonmee can put on a positive outing. Lookboonmee only recorded 62.8 fantasy points in her previous fight; she totaled 88 or more in three of her four bouts before that.
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