Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Kings star Domantas Sabonis to have a 50% chance to play today on the road at the Hornets. Sacramento is a 10.5-point favorite on the road in this matchup at Charlotte and Sabonis’ status for a Kings team hanging onto a Play-In spot in the NBA Playoffs could be one of the most important on today’s NBA slate for DFS and prop bets.
Sabonis will be an interesting option for DFS tournaments and prop bets if he plays. He averages 21.9% usage, a 23.8% rebound rate and a 23.5% assist rate in court time this year without former teammate De’Aaron Fox. With a matchup against the soft, but low-paced Hornets, Sabonis should be in position for a respectable statistical output. Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would expect Sabonis to put up 18.2 points, an ungodly high 14.4 rebounds and 6.2 assists if he were to play tonight.
If Sabonis is out, the remaining Kings would be huge beneficiaries. In particular, Jonas Valanciunas would likely become one of the most popular plays in DraftKings tournaments tonight. Valanciunas has averaged 1.2 DraftKings Points Per Minute on a 19.5% usage rate, 21.8% rebound rate and 12.4% assist rate in his time with the Kings this year with Sabonis off the court.
Here’s how Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would have the Kings would project whether Sabonis sits or plays:
- Jonas Valanciunas projects for 13.9 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists (6.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.5 assists if Sabonis plays)
- Zach LaVine projects for 21.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.1 assists (20.0 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists if Sabonis plays)
- DeMar DeRozan projects for 23.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 6.7 assists (22.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.8 assists if Sabonis plays)
- Malik Monk projects for 17.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 5.7 assists (16.4 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists if Sabonis plays)
- Keegan Murray projects for 13.7 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists (12.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.4 assists if Sabonis plays)
Jonas Valanciunas would be a crucial DraftKings DFS tournament play tonight at his $3,800 salary, but clearly all the Kings would look appreciably better if Sabonis sits. There would also be incredible betting opportunities on Kings overs on DraftKings Sportsbook. Unabated’s bet simulation tools would project 11% Expected Value on Zach LaVine’s over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line and 8.3% EV on DeMar DeRozan’s over 32.5 PRAs line. These markets currently do not account for the potential of a Sabonis absence and would be great to pounce on the second he were to get ruled out.
Kings-Hornets tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. We should know Sabonis’ status with ample time to react accordingly for DraftKings DFS players and prop bettors.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
