Paige Bueckers is downright nails at a legendary magnitude this tournament, dropping a blistering 35.0 PPG. Defenders left in her wake like so many blown flat tires. Her offensive arsenal is unstoppable—she’s hitting from everywhere, creating for teammates, and carrying UConn with unmatched intensity. This run is her stage, it seems—everyone else just roleplayers, all—and she’s owning the center. I’ve got a UCLA vs. UConn women’s Final Four prediction here, if you’re looking for advice on how to play the game. We’ll just be evaluating Bueckers’ betting markets for this piece.
Here’s how I’ll play Bueckers’ lines tonight. I’ll also still be writing up predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout what’s left of the tournaments.
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Best Paige Bueckers prop bet for UCLA vs. UConn
Paige Bueckers 25+ points (-135)
Over the last three tournament games, Bueckers has been on another level, averaging 35.0 points per game, with an absurd 59.1% shooting from the field and 61.9% from three. She’s been a scoring machine, and there’s no reason to think she’ll slow down now. In her last game against USC, she exploded for 31 points, and it wasn’t just the volume of shots—her efficiency is what separates her. Against a team like UCLA, where every possession matters, Bueckers is primed to put up another monster scoring performance. 25 points is well within her reach, especially when you look at her usage rate of 31.6% in the tournament.
Bueckers isn’t just a scorer, though—she’s also been contributing across the board, averaging 33.5 PRA over the last three games, with 6.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists. She’s been driving UConn’s offense and doing it all at an elite level. And don’t forget—this is her final NCAA Tournament, and you better believe she’s playing with the kind of fire that makes stars legendary. UCLA will throw defenders at her, but there’s no one on their roster who can fully match her skill set and mentality. Bueckers has the ability to rise above the pressure and deliver, especially with her playmaking and scoring all over the floor.
While her PRA and assists lines look tempting, the real value here is her scoring. Bueckers has been scoring in bunches, and UCLA’s defense, while solid, has allowed 19.1 PPG to opposing stars this tournament. If they give her any room, she’s going to make them pay. The 25+ points line is rock solid, especially with her current form and the stakes at hand.
We’ll be doing the same with Walter Clayton Jr. over in the Men’s bracket for the Gators tomorrow—for a secondary bet, 4+ three-pointers isn’t a bad shout. Bueckers has been lights out from deep, shooting 61.9% from three in the tournament, and she’s hit at least four threes in two of her last three games.
But, at the end of the day, 25+ points is where the cool money is. Bueckers’ scoring has been the lore of legends this tournament. She’s seeing the court from a plane of existence beyond locked-in, even with all the incessant what-she’ll-leave-behind noise. And, quite simply, she’s going to just torch this UCLA defense. Count on it.
Best bet: Paige Bueckers 25+ points (-135)
Tail Bueckers to bombard buckets in her last Final Four with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Fun lean: Paige Bueckers 4+ three-pointers (+130)
She’s hit four in two of her last three games. Final Four feels like a great place to continue the trend!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
