The 2025 NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and there is still a lot of uncertainty around the quarterback market. This is a look into the current odds of how many quarterbacks will be taken in the first round and which side of that prop bet has the most value.
Bet on 2025 NFL Draft prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook, including how many quarterbacks will be taken in the first round, here.
NFL Draft Props: Total Quarterbacks Selected in the First Round
After six quarterbacks went in the first 12 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, this year’s quarterback class is a notable step down. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and potentially even Michael Penix Jr. or J.J. McCarthy could be the top quarterback in this draft. Last year’s quarterback class has the potential to be one of the all-time great classes, and the 2026 quarterback class is already receiving a lot of hype as well. Meanwhile, this 2025 quarterback class is leaving a lot of teams in a tricky spot.
There are many teams out there who would have been ultra-aggressive going after a quarterback if this class was on par with last year’s. However, many teams at the top of the draft opted to bring in veterans this offseason due to the lack of trust in this year’s group. The Giants signed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, the Raiders signed Geno Smith and the Jets signed Justin Fields. All of those teams inside the top 10 seemingly passed up on drafting a quarterback in the first round in favor of a veteran presence. The Browns, who hold the No. 2 pick, are also potentially making a move to acquire Kirk Cousins before the draft, and the Steelers could be bringing in Aaron Rodgers.
There are very few NFL teams that don’t already have the guy who will likely be their Week 1 starter. The Titans, Browns and Steelers are the only three teams who seem to be in the market for a starting quarterback at this point in the offseason. Of course, teams will still be looking at the quarterbacks in this draft to bring in as a backup and try to develop them. There is also always the possibility that a team goes rogue and drafts a prospect that they love despite having an established starting quarterback, just like the Falcons did last season. However, if Kirk Cousins ends up in Cleveland and Aaron Rodgers ends up in Pittsburgh, that only leaves Tennessee to draft a quarterback who will be their Week 1 starter.
The momentum has moved heavily in favor of the Titans taking Cam Ward with the top pick in the draft. The former Miami quarterback has established himself as the top prospect in this quarterback class over recent weeks. Early on in the draft process, he was thought of by some draft experts as being on the same tier as Shedeur Sanders. However, Ward’s stock has risen over the past couple of months, while Sanders’ stock has moved in the opposite direction. Ward will almost certainly go No. 1 overall, making it one guaranteed quarterback taken in the first round. While Sanders’ stock has dropped, it’s hard to envision him dropping out of the first round. Ward and Sanders have been considered first-round prospects all off-season, and that almost certainly won’t change.
The X-factor when betting this prop is Jaxson Dart. Dart has cemented himself as the clear No. 3 quarterback in this class, and some have even moved him ahead of Sanders. Players like Jalen Milroe and Quinn Ewers will certainly get drafted, but they are projects who won’t be starting anytime soon. Those players likely won’t get taken until the third or even fourth round. Despite the big run on quarterbacks early in the 2024 NFL Draft, after Bo Nix at No. 12 overall, the next quarterback wasn’t taken until Spencer Rattler went in the fifth round. There was a huge wait from that first group of quarterbacks to the later-round “project” quarterbacks. That could be the case again with the wait between Sanders and Milroe or Ewers. The only difference this year is that Dart falls somewhere in between those two distinct tiers.
If the Steelers don’t sign Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins, they could be forced to be aggressive and draft Dart with their first-round pick. However, this is also dependent on how far Sanders drops down draft boards. If teams aren’t looking to bring him in as a starter for 2025, he could drop further down the board than people think. It’s hard for a team like the Jets or Raiders, with so many positions to fill, to bring in a quarterback who won’t even start this season. Therefore, you could see Sanders drop all the way to a team like the Dolphins or Cardinals in the middle of the first round, who want to bring in Sanders as a backup. Then, if the Steelers pass on Dart in the first round, it would require a team like the Rams with an older starting quarterback to get aggressive and bring Dart in to be a backup with their first-round pick.
This market will look clearer if the Browns and/or Steelers make a move for a veteran quarterback before the draft. However, as things currently sit, there is a lot of value on under 2.5 quarterbacks to be taken in the first round. The over 2.5 is juiced to -320, meaning oddsmakers expect Dart to go in the first round. However, I predict Kirk Cousins will be a Brown, Aaron Rodgers will be a Steelers, Cam Ward will be taken by the Titans and Sanders will drop down the board to a team that wants to bring him in as a backup. Not many teams are willing to use a first-round pick on a quarterback that will sit on the bench. Therefore, Dart would likely drop to the second round, where a team with an uncertain long-term quarterback situation like the Browns, Jets, Saints or Colts could take him with an early second-round pick.
