After a torrid start to the season, Aaron Judge has finally cooled down. The two-time MVP has gone one-for-eight with five strikeouts during his last two games against the Diamondbacks. Will the slugger return to form on Thursday?
Tonight, New York enters as slight favorites (-125) vs. Arizona, with the over/under set at 10 runs. Before the start of Thursday’s inter-league showdown, here’s my favorite Aaron Judge player prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Aaron Judge O 1.5 total bases (-135)
Ignoring his struggles this week, Aaron Judge is baseball’s most prolific hitter. Since 2022, the big man leads MLB in home runs (161), RBIs (361), OPS (1.112), and wRC+ (205). Those impressive numbers come despite missing nearly 60 games due to injury in 2023.
Clearly, the sky is the limit for the Yankees’ captain. However, Arizona aces Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen have stymied the six-time All-Star. Tonight, the Snakes will hand the ball to Merrill Kelly. The right-hander has been solid, if not spectacular, during his seven-year career. Over 141 starts, he’s recorded a 3.81 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Judge has faced Kelly twice, recording one hit (a home run) in four plate appearances. However, the outfielder did reach base two more times via the walk. That ability to work a count could come in handy during tonight’s contest. This Yankees lineup is loaded; with more at-bats comes more opportunity. It also helps that Arizona has used several of its best relievers on two straight nights.
There’s a logical angle to this bet, but there’s also ‘vibes’ at play. The Diamondbacks possess one of baseball’s best pitching staffs. Still, do you really expect Judge to struggle for a third straight game (cue postseason jokes)?
Consider me an optimist, but I don’t think last weekend’s four-homer, 11-RBI outburst was a fluke. Even if it comes via one extra-base hit, I expect New York’s face of the franchise to get back on track tonight.
