Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently has it as a 50% chance that Hornets star Miles Bridges plays tonight on the road at Indiana. Bridges was downgraded on today’s injury report in a game that matters very little for Charlotte; with LaMelo Ball already ruled out for the year, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see Bridges miss games down the home stretch.
Bridges’ status matters a lot for DraftKings DFS tournaments and prop bets. He’s had a high usage role with LaMelo out this year, including a 31.3% usage rate, 13.5% rebound rate and 24.3% assist rate — good for 1.3 DraftKings Points Per Minute. If Bridges sits in a pace-up spot versus Indiana (pun only slightly intended), he’d open up a lot of possessions and minutes for the remaining Hornets.
If Bridges plays, Unabated NBA projects him for 21.5 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.5 assists in their Conditional NBA Projections. His success or failure would likely play a key factor in if Charlotte hangs in this game as a 14.5-point road underdog, or if they get blown off the court.
Whether Bridges plays or sits, here’s the impact on Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections for his Charlotte teammates with available betting markets:
- Mark Williams projects for 18.0 points, 10.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists (14.1 points, 10.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists if Bridges plays)
- DaQuan Jeffries projects for 9.0 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.4 assists (6.1 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists if Bridges plays)
- KJ Simpson projects for 11.6 points, 3.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists (10.9 points, 2.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists if Bridges plays)
- Tidjane Salaun projects for 9.8 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists (7.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists if Bridges plays)
- Nick Smith projects for 12.7 points, 2.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists (9.9 points, 1.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists if Bridges plays)
Unabated’s bet simulation tools would project Mark Williams for 13.1% Expected Value on his over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists bet on DraftKings Sportsbook if Miles Bridges sits. He’s the only Hornet currently with available markets on DraftKings Sportsbook, but you could expect similar Expected Value on the over on lines for the rest of Bridges’ teammates if Bridges were to be ruled out.
With tonight’s NBA slate currently only featuring a handful of key questionable players, Miles Bridges’ late injury downgrade makes him one of the most important moving parts of tonight’s NBA slate. Charlotte at Indiana tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET, so thankfully, this is one injury we should know with ample time to react.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
