For the last event before the Masters, we head to the Oaks Course of TPC San Antonio (par 72, 7,438 yards, POA Trivialis greens) for the Valero Texas Open. This track has hosted every edition of this event since 2010, and for this week, there will be 150 golfers competing and there will be a standard top 65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
Below, I have featured some head-to-head tournament matchup bets to consider for the Valero Texas Open.
Tony Finau over Tom Kim (-125)
Finau is a far better pick than Kim this week. Kim struggled mightily in his first start at TPC San Antonio last season, missing the cut at +7, which was six shots off the cutline. Finau on the other hand has made 4-of-5 cuts at TPC San Antonio with two top 30 finishes, including a T3 in 2017. Overall, Finau has been an elite player in Texas throughout his career, gaining 1.36 strokes per round, while Kim has been underwhelming with 0.46.
This season, Kim has made one more cut than Finau in the same amount of starts, but Finau has displayed much better upside with three top 15 finishes. Kim has only finished inside the top 30 once.
FInau’s +3500 outright odds to win this weekend are better than Kim at +4000 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and Finau needs to be backed to win this matchup.
Lee Hodges over Kurt Kitayama (-110)
Hodges has been very consistent this season, making all six cuts at the events he’s played, with three top 25 finishes, including a T11 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open last week. The 29-year-old’s irons have been excellent, with him gaining strokes on approach at five straight tournaments and, for the season, Hodges ranks 17th in total strokes gained.
Conversely, Kitayama has been up-and-down this season, advancing to the weekend in five of his nine starts. Kitayama hasn’t finished higher than 33rd and he ranks 77th in total strokes gained for the season.
As for previous experience at TPC San Antonio, this will be Kitayama’s debut at the Texas venue, while Hodges has made 1-of-3 cuts at TPC San Antonio. While missing two cuts here isn’t ideal, Hodges finished T6 in that one start where he advanced to the weekend. This high finish shows us Hodges has the tools to thrive at this par 72 and he returns to TPC San Antonio ranking fourth in total driving this season — compared to Kitayama at 54th — which bodes well for this long, flat track. Of the last five winners at TPC San Antonio, four have finished the week top 12 in SG OTT.
While Kitayama is a very shaky option this week, Hodges has real upside and is a must-bet to win this matchup.
